[Macro] When to buy the bottom and make a fortune!

How will the market outlook develop and what operations should we do? In the short term, the non-renewal of BTFP is indeed a potential mini-crisis. At the same time, historically, risk markets have mostly fallen within one month before and after entering the interest rate cut cycle. This is because interest rate cuts are often in response to economic downturns, sluggish employment, and financial crises. Therefore, interest rate cuts also imply expectations of economic recession, which will cause the valuation of risk markets to be impacted in a short period of time.

The market currently expects that the probability of the Fed starting to cut interest rates in March is 46.7%, and the probability of starting to cut interest rates in May is 50.7%.

Therefore, under the dual effects of the banking crisis and the initial correction of interest rate cuts, May will be a watershed, and there may have been relatively large corrections before.

Maybe the Bitcoin halving in April will follow the same trend as ETFs, and the good news will be a correction. But don’t worry, crises are also opportunities. If you control your positions and leverage, crises are cheap chips, because in the long run, all this will force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and release water. A huge pump is about to be completed, and the big bulls will be determined in 24 and 25 years. It will arrive as expected.

In line with the technical analysis of the market, the current rebound height is around 43500-44000, and there is a high probability that there will be a big C wave decline after that, which is the callback we expect. Regarding the specific price, Xiaohei believes that Bitcoin will form a support between 30,000 and 35,000, and he also bought a $35,000 put option.

My point of view is similar. The specific bottom price is currently difficult to predict, but all cheap chips are below 40,000. The lower the price, the more excited we should be.

Also, for friends who do not have professional experience in option operations, I do not recommend that you learn to buy options or open short hedging. You can just buy the bottom of the previously reserved positions in batches.