1. Token Circulation Supply Valuation
According to Coingecko data, as of March 20, Optimism's market value was approximately $839 million, the OP token was priced at approximately $2.63, and the circulating supply was $314.8 million. In contrast, after the airdrop is completed on Thursday, 1.275 billion ARB tokens will flow into the market. Since the total supply of ARB tokens is 10 billion, the market circulation accounts for approximately 12.75% of the total supply.
The market value of the token's circulating supply is how many tokens will be traded on the market, excluding the locked-up allocation, and the token market value is calculated by multiplying the token price by the circulating supply. If the ARB token is valued similarly to the OP token, the current OP token market value (approximately $839 million) can be divided by the ARB token circulating supply (1.275 billion), which gives ARB a potential price of approximately $0.65.
2. Fully diluted valuation
In addition to estimating based on the circulating supply of tokens, there is another way to estimate the fully diluted valuation (FDV). Taking Optimism as an example, the current total supply of OP tokens is about 4.29 billion, and the fully diluted valuation of OP tokens is about 11.45 billion US dollars (based on the valuation of the total supply of tokens).
The fully diluted token valuation is calculated by multiplying the token market price by the total supply, and is more forward-looking than estimating the market value based on the circulating supply because it takes into account tokens that will be unlocked at a future date. If the fully diluted valuation of ARB tokens is similar to Optimism, then the estimated ARB token price is about $1.15 - calculated by dividing the fully diluted value of OP tokens ($11.45 billion) by the total supply of ARB tokens (10 billion).
