Since entering January, the market has been in a continuous downturn, with more declines than gains. The mainstream currencies have generally fallen by more than 20%. The short-term impact of spot ETFs is limited. When the market falls, all that appears are negative factors, but as traders, we must make our own judgments, and they must be forward-looking. The fundamental reason for the rise and fall of the market is the cycle, and the direct reason is liquidity. Other events are just side news. Sometimes reading too much of it has the opposite effect.

Judging from the four-hour trend of ETH, it is likely that the second retracement and probe have been completed. Next, there is a high probability that a slow upward trend will appear. Judging by the golden section line, if it rebounds upwards, the big cake position of 42,500 is relatively easy. If you are optimistic, 43,800 is not impossible. However, the rise here should be a rebound rather than a reversal.