Today's afternoon meeting:

There were not many updates to the ETF holdings data today, but more than 14,000 GBTC were indeed transferred on the chain yesterday. Let's wait and see tomorrow's data. Foreign media said that this wave of large-scale redemption of GBTC was due to the liquidation of FTX's previous investment shares, which led to selling as soon as work started, basically selling at no cost. If this is true, then this part should have been almost sold (close to 1 billion).

In the past week, USDT has seen a rare decline in market value. This actually illustrates a problem, that is, the investment power of Chinese people is declining. However, speaking of the investment power of Chinese people, cancer stocks have been pushed to the forefront recently. There are more and more liquidations on Snowball. Yesterday, 2700 points were almost not held. Why did we say there was a systemic risk last week? Because retail leveraged positions were blown up, someone came to pick up the bloody steamed buns. This is only a short-term thing. If it continues to fall and cannot hold 2700, some major shareholders’ pledged stocks may also be liquidated, similar to the ETH chain liquidation in the currency circle, which will really usher in systemic risks. So in the long run, this may really be just the beginning.

Recently, several new projects, SAVM and ONDO, which have seen relatively large increases, have been reported to be shipped out by the project wallet. These two projects have indeed received more attention recently. SAVM is a ZK ROLLUP Bitcoin L2 solution, compatible with EVM, which actually links Ethereum EVM with Bitcoin ecology. This is a trend in the future, so it has been hyped by funds. ONDO is a newly launched RWA project for institutional services, which can digitize U.S. bonds, U.S. dollars, corporate bonds, stocks, etc. on the chain. This may also be a future trend after the ETF is passed. In addition, ONDO was born with COINBASE, and it has a thousand connections with BlackRock. Therefore, these two projects have nearly doubled in the short term after they went online. SAVM's market value is only 60 million, and ONDO's market value has reached 300 million, but they are not too high, and there are still opportunities in the future.

INJ completed full unlocking yesterday and became a fully circulating token. It can be seen that there is not much fluctuation in the market. The pledged amount is still 48 million, and the APR is as high as 15-17. The current circulation volume should be more than 80 million. However, there is a small problem here, that is, the maximum limit of INJ is 100 million. At the current output and destruction rate, it may take about 2 years to reach the maximum limit. The project party should take some action on the token model in the future. Once emissions are reduced, the pledged amount will inevitably be reduced and the supply will increase, but there is still a long time. Everything depends on how the market develops in the future.

In terms of market conditions, we saw the 3-digit numbers this week, but today is only Tuesday, and Grayscale is obviously selling as soon as it gets to work. The divergence of the 4H last Friday was also solved by a rapid rebound, and the weekly arc top also appeared. The bulls are obviously weak, but it is really hard to say what position to buy the bottom, but when to buy the bottom should be possible, that is, when Grayscale stops selling as soon as it gets to work, or when the buyers and sellers of the ETF reach a balance point. It is very reasonable to adjust for 1 month after rising for 3 months. The gold ETF adjusted for 2 months that year. Therefore, we can only do ultra-short-term trading in the near future, and it is not time to do long-term swings yet.

There is nothing much to say about the weak linkage between the two cakes.

Today's Fear and Greed Index: 50 (Neutral)

Total ETF holdings on January 19: 646,937, up 346 from the previous day