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The increasing discussion among policymakers and finance in Seoul places stablecoins
Stablecoins are in the spotlight as legislators and companies push to accelerate their adoption.
UBS analysts say momentum is building, with the ruling party presenting bills that would create a legal framework for digital assets, including stablecoins linked to the won.
Expectations have also risen since the inauguration of the new president in June and the appointment of the former CEO of Hashed Open Research, a research center specializing in blockchain technology, as the chief policy officer.
Supporters argue that Korea cannot fall behind while other financial centers like Hong Kong and Singapore prepare for their own systems. They emphasize that foreign currency stablecoins are already trading in Korea and could undermine the role of the won if left unchecked.
On the other hand, the Bank of Korea warned of risks ranging from investors fleeing currencies and operational failures to capital flight and weakened control over monetary policy.
Despite official caution, private and public initiatives are on the rise. Dunamu, operator of the Upbit exchange, collaborated with Never Financial to issue a stablecoin, while Kakao Pay (KS:377300) and Kakao Bank (KS:323410) have registered trademarks for their own coins.
Eight traditional banks, including KB Financial Group (KS:105560) and Shinhan Financial Group (KS:055550), have also joined to launch a won-linked token, even pausing the central bank's project on tokenized deposits.
UBS expects payments to be the first sector that stablecoins will penetrate, given the lower fees and quicker settlement compared to cards. In their baseline scenario, trading could reach 80 trillion won by 2030, equivalent to 5% of cashless payments.
An optimistic scenario expects up to 128 trillion won if issuers share interest income with users, while a pessimistic scenario limits issuance to only 8 trillion won if banks dominate and incentives remain weak. UBS estimates that interest income for issuers could range between 1 trillion and 2 trillion won by 2030 depending on interest rates.
The date indicates that government policy could accelerate adoption. Tax exemptions previously helped credit and debit cards gain appeal, and UBS analysts say similar measures for stablecoin spending would encourage usage.
Analyst Gil Kim noted in a memo: "Transaction costs are likely to be lower than credit or debit cards. Merchants can receive payments faster."
If regulations allow fintech companies to issue tokens, they may surpass banks. Companies like Kakao Pay and Never Pay already control a large share of digital payments and have strong distribution networks.
Kim notes that the most competitive players will be those who internally integrate the ecosystem - from blockchain and custody to wallets and payments - with Kakao seen as one of the few already close to this model.
The analyst argues that a few large players are likely to dominate, reflecting trends in e-commerce and social media, with network effects and compliance requirements limiting the field.
In short, while stablecoins could reshape the payment system in Korea, much depends on how parliament resolves the tension between financial innovation and systemic risks. Currently, expectations are high, but the ultimate balance between benefits and risks remains undecided.
