The current price of BTC is around $115,800. Let's analyze the long and short operation points and win rate assessment in the short term. A key background in the current market is that some analysts view today (September 21, 2025) as a potential "Bitcoin Bottom Day." Historical data shows that there is a 70% probability that BTC will rise before the end of the year, with a median mid-term increase of up to 50%.

📊 Comprehensive operation strategy reference

Based on the current market conditions, the following operational ideas can be considered, but please be sure to note that **stop-loss is crucial**, as it helps you control risk:

| Bullish 🟢 | 115,500 - 115,800 | 115,000 | 117,500 | About 1:4 | Support level has effectively rebounded, aiming for the upper edge of the range |

| Bullish 🟢 | 115,200 - 115,500 | 114,700 | 117,000+ | About 1:4.6 | Strong support zone, if it stabilizes and rebounds, the win rate is relatively high |

| Bearish 🔴 | 117,000 - 117,400 | 117,600 | 116,000-115,800 | About 1:2 | Resistance at the upper edge of the range, can try short positions before effective breakout |

💡 Current market key information

*Historical expectations of 'Bitcoin bottom days'**: Network economist Timothy Peterson proposed that after September 21, Bitcoin has about a 70% probability of closing higher by the end of the year, with a median mid-term increase of 50%. He believes that in this cycle, Bitcoin **has a 70% chance of establishing $100,000 as a 'permanent floor price'**. But this is based on historical statistics, and the market environment is always changing.

*Bullish and bearish factors intertwine**:

*Bullish factors** 🟢: The Federal Reserve's 25 basis point interest rate cut has increased market liquidity, favoring risk assets. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF continues to attract fund inflows (nearly $3.04 billion in the past two weeks), indicating that **institutional demand remains solid**.

*Bearish factors** 🔴: The price has recently been blocked multiple times in the $117,000 - $118,000 area and retreated, indicating strong selling pressure at that position. **Insufficient trading volume**, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market.

⚖️ Win rate assessment and risk warning

*Short-term situation**: The current market is in a **volatile pattern**. Both bulls and bears have repeatedly contested within the previous range, and the direction remains unclear.

*Key price levels**:

*Strong resistance above**: **$117,400 - $117,877**. If it can break out with volume, it may open up upward space, targeting $120,000 or even $123,000.

*Strong support below**: **$115,000 - $115,200**. If it effectively breaks down, it may further test the $114,000 or even the $110,000 - $112,000 area.

*Rough win rate assessment**:

A long position attempting a rebound near 115,500, if strict stop-loss is applied, *the short-term win rate may be relatively high** (based on historical statistics of 'bottom days' and support level effects).

Attempting a short position near 117,000, which belongs to a counter short-term potential trend operation, *the win rate is relatively low**, and one must be more vigilant about the risk of a breakout.

🧭 Here are your operational suggestions

1. Operate cautiously, control positions: The current market is at a critical time point but the direction is unclear, **light position trading** is a wise move. Avoid using excessively high leverage.

2. Keep a close eye on key level performance: Focus on **$117,600** (whether it can effectively break) and **$115,000** (whether it will break) performance.

3. Pay attention to the news: Monitor macroeconomic data, comments from Federal Reserve officials, and other significant news that may affect market sentiment.

4. Follow the trend: If the price effectively breaks $117,600, consider following the trend with long positions; if it breaks below $115,000, then reassess the market trend.

📌 Final reminder

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and any predictions carry uncertainty. The above analysis is based on current market information and technical indicators, **not constituting any investment advice**. Please be sure to assess your own risk tolerance, make independent judgments, and manage risks appropriately.