In the cryptocurrency world for seven years, from an initial capital of eight thousand to zero, to stable profits. Today, I'll summarize my losses into a few sentences; read them and decide whether to jump into the fire pit.
1. Liquidation is inevitable
The probability of liquidation in a single instance is 0.1%; if you trade a thousand times, the overall liquidation rate is 63%; two thousand times is 87%. The higher the leverage, the more exponentially the risk of liquidation increases. I experienced three liquidations in one night, and in the blink of an eye, my account was left with only screenshots.
2. Fees are an invisible knife
A win rate of 50% is not enough; with a thousand trades, a 0.1% fee will first cut away 10% of the capital. In 2022, I made a profit of 8%, but with 11% in fees, I ultimately lost 3%. The following year, I only made thirty trades, allowing me to retain my money.
3. The math of breaking even is cruel
If you lose 50% and then earn 50%, you’re left with only 75%; if you lose 90%, you need to make 9 times your original amount to break even. Leverage turns a cliff into an abyss, and losing control of emotions will only accelerate your fall.
4. What does a 3% winner look like?
I observed three types of people around me who survived:
Small capital short-term traders: 100 U betting 5%, two trades a day, profit and loss turn off the machine.
Profit-loss ratio competitors: win rate of 40%, one trade profit offsets five trade losses.
Miracles of rolling positions: a market occurrence once every five years, turning 50,000 into millions, a one in a thousand chance.
I consistently operate in the second category: single trade risk ≤2%, profit-loss ratio ≥1:3, if unclear, stay out of the market, treating contracts as a side job.
5. Three harsh words for beginners
Only use leverage after securing a win for six months in spot trading.
Divide the capital into 20 parts; lose only one part at a time, leaving 19 lives.
Write notes for each trade, review weekly, and do not earn money where there are no loopholes.
Contracts are neither a flood nor an ATM; they are a mirror reflecting greed and fear.
The market does not pity novices; it only rewards those who follow the rules.
If you still fantasize about getting rich overnight, it will quickly return to zero; if you are willing to spend a year building a system and maintaining discipline, there may be a piece for you in that 3% cake.
Follow @阿柒交易日记 ; when the market comes again, I will shout first; if you want to hold steady chips, let’s go.