Looking back at the predictions made a year ago regarding the main line of the crypto market, although some directions were hit, as the market evolves, the outlines of the current main and secondary lines have become clearer — from the initial 'Payfi' refined to the core track of 'Stablecoins + RWA', AI Agents are moving towards practicality, getting rid of the 'Skinning Meme' dilemma, the head effect of the Meme track is prominent, and the prediction market has become a potential new main line, with the logic of subjects and investment opportunities in different tracks also emerging.
1. Core Line: Stablecoins + RWA, Subject Selection under Clear Narrative
The previously predicted direction of 'Payfi' has not deviated from its essence, but a more precise positioning should be 'Stablecoins' — the current stablecoin market not only continues to expand in scale but is also deeply bound to RWA (Real World Assets), forming a dual-driven pattern of 'Stablecoins as carriers, RWA as scenarios'. The subjects of this main line need to be filtered from four dimensions: 'Centralized Layout', 'Public Chain Competition', 'Decentralized Hedging', and 'RWA Landing'.
1. $CRCL: Betting on Circle's leading position in stablecoins, opportunities remain after the correction
The core logic of CRCL is to anchor Circle's 'second place' status in the stablecoin market - currently, USDC's market capitalization firmly ranks second in stablecoins, and with the expected expansion of the global stablecoin scale by 5-8 times in the next five years (from the current approximately $1.5 trillion to $8-12 trillion), Circle's revenue and profit growth have clear expectations. In terms of price, CRCL's current price of $135, based solely on market capitalization (about $28 billion) and profit (approximately $420 million net profit in Q2 2025), is indeed not low (P/E ratio of about 33 times); however, combined with the deep correction from $300 to $108 in recent months and the long-term expansion logic of stablecoins, the current price level has entered a 'relatively reasonable range'. Many investors choose to position in this phase, such as adding positions at the $115 price level, precisely because of its scarcity in the centralized stablecoin sector - after all, the 'head effect' in the stablecoin market is significant, with Circle and Tether occupying over 90% market share, and $CRCL is one of the few targets for ordinary investors to participate in Circle's growth.
2. $PlasmaFDN: Candidate for the leading stablecoin public chain, mainnet launch as a key node
If direct exposure to Tether equity is not possible, $PlasmaFDN is the core target in the current stablecoin public chain sector. As a stablecoin dedicated public chain invested by Tether, Plasma leads competitors in multiple dimensions: financing scale exceeding $300 million (far exceeding Stable, Arc and other competitors' $50 million - $100 million); in ecological construction, it has partnered with leading DeFi projects like Aave and Curve, planning to launch liquidity mining simultaneously after the mainnet goes live; in terms of social volume, its Twitter (X) follower count exceeds 500,000, more than 3 times that of Stable.
The market has high expectations for it. According to the current plan, after the mainnet launch, the TVL (total locked value) is expected to have a floor of $300-400 million (referencing the initial TVL of similar public chains and the ecological cooperation intensity of Plasma); however, it should be noted that the current pre-market / contract price corresponding to $6 billion valuation has already overdrawn part of the expectations, and contract trading carries volatility risks. A more prudent strategy is to wait for the spot to go live and observe actual TVL and ecological activity before choosing to enter.
From the competitive landscape, the stablecoin public chain sector is undergoing a 'new-old transition': the old leader Tron’s USDT TVL has dropped from $83 billion to $77 billion over the past month, showing weak growth; while among new players like Plasma, Stable, and Arc, Plasma temporarily leads due to Tether's resources and first-mover advantage, and the future competition for the title of 'leading stablecoin public chain' will directly impact its long-term valuation - after all, with a trillion-scale stablecoin market, the fee and ecological sharing potential of dedicated public chains are enormous.
3. $ENA: Decentralized stablecoin hedging target, strong fundamental support
In the stablecoin narrative, both centralized and decentralized targets need to be positioned. ENA (Ethena) is a core choice in the decentralized sector. Its issued decentralized stablecoin USDE has surpassed $13.5 billion in market capitalization, becoming the second-largest decentralized stablecoin after DAI; more crucially, Ethena's business model has closed the loop - the DAT (DeltaArbitrageToken) mechanism can achieve stable returns by hedging against crypto asset volatility, and the fee switch (transaction fee sharing) will soon be enabled, with continuous profitability expected to start in Q4 2025. In addition, Ethena is also expanding centralized scenarios, with its centralized stablecoin USDTB (pegged to USDT) market capitalization about to exceed $2 billion, with future plans to integrate traditional payment channels; at the same time, its own RWA public chain Converge has entered the testing stage, which will bridge the circulation link of 'decentralized stablecoins + RWA assets'. Currently, the performance of ENA tokens is flat, more influenced by the overall market sentiment and short-term profit-taking rather than a deterioration in fundamentals, still possessing value in hedging against the risks of centralized stablecoins in the long run.
4. $Ondo: RWA landing benchmark, a rare target for US stocks on-chain without borders
$Ondo is a representative of 'scene landing' in the stablecoin + RWA sector, whose core competitiveness lies in connecting 'crypto markets and US stocks' - currently the only crypto project that achieves 5×24 hours trading of US stocks, and implements a no KYC threshold through 1inch integration, allowing users to directly purchase synthetic assets of US stocks like Tesla and Apple using USDC.
In terms of endorsements, Ondo has received indirect support from traditional institutions like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, and its asset custody and compliance are at the top level among RWA projects; however, it should be noted that its current market capitalization (about $12 billion) and FDV (fully diluted valuation) have certain bubbles, and the concentration of chips is relatively high (the top 10 addresses hold over 60% of the circulating supply), making it a 'high certainty but high valuation' target, suitable for long-term investors in the RWA sector, while in the short term, it is necessary to wait for valuation digestion before entering.
Supplementary target: $Tempo (potential) - A dark horse in the To B sector backed by Stripe
Apart from the above-mentioned targets, $Tempo (not yet issued) is a potential variable in the stablecoin public chain sector. Unlike Plasma, which focuses on To C scenarios, Tempo's core advantage lies in its To B channel - backed by Stripe (a payment giant serving over 1 million merchants), with future plans to integrate stablecoin payments into Stripe's merchant ecosystem, directly reaching offline retail and cross-border trade scenarios; at the same time, Tempo is directly involved in development by Paradigm (not just a simple investment), with technical team and resource support far exceeding ordinary projects.
Although no issuance plans have been clearly defined yet, from the latest content of the Bankless podcast, the probability of Tempo issuing tokens is quite high. If it successfully lands, the stablecoin public chain sector may form a 'Plasma (To C) + Tempo (To B)' dual-kingdom pattern - after all, the previous stablecoin 'recruitment' war by Hyperliquid has proven that channel resources and scene landing are more critical than pure technological advantages.
II. Sub-main Line 1: AI Agents, from 'Meme' to 'Practical', halving events as catalysts
Last year, the AI Agent sector mostly consisted of Goat, ai16Z and other 'skin套' Meme projects, lacking actual functional support, and the heat was short-lived; while 2025's AI Agents have turned to 'practicality', emerging a batch of projects with potential PMF (Product-Market Fit):
Web2 Side: Skywork, with 'AI + Office Collaboration' features, has surpassed 5 million users, achieving an average monthly growth of 15%;
Web3 Side: @HeyAnonai (privacy AI assistant, supports on-chain address analysis), @gizatechxyz (AI-driven DeFi strategy generator), @Almanak__ (AI oracle, optimizing price prediction accuracy), @ReiNetwork0x (AI cross-chain asset management), and other projects have launched usable products, with user retention rates exceeding 30%, far surpassing last year's 'pure speculation' projects.
Among numerous targets, Bittensor ($TAO) remains the leader in the sector, with the core logic being:
The subnet ecology is gradually maturing, with 4 subnets currently achieving positive revenue (AI model training, data labeling, etc.), and the revenue scale is growing at an average monthly rate of 20%;
The halving event in early 2026 (reducing token inflation rate from 3% to 1.5%) will become an important catalyst. Historical data shows that the six months before the halving is often a window for positioning;
As the 'infrastructure' of the Web3 AI field, Bittensor's computing power network has connected over 100,000 nodes, serving as the underlying support for other AI Agent projects, with irreplaceability.
What needs to be noted now is that if there is a correction in the market before the halving, forming a 'golden pit' (for example, a drop of over 40%), it will be a quality opportunity for mid to long-term positioning.
III. Sub-main Line 2: Meme, extreme head effect, Pump becomes the only Beta
The Meme sector has been hot from last year to this year, even leading to a competitive situation where 'major Launchpads compete for the market', but ultimately 'the strong will remain strong' - Pump still occupies an absolute leading position:
In terms of market share, Pump's Meme coin issuance scale accounts for 65% of the entire market, far exceeding Binance Launchpad (20%) and OKX Jumpstart (10%);
In terms of functional expansion, Pump has already entered the live broadcast sector, launching a 'Web3 Tiktok' model, where users can receive Meme coin rewards through live interaction, with daily active users exceeding 2 million;
In terms of ecological stickiness, Pump's Meme coin holders have a reinvestment rate exceeding 70%, far higher than the industry average of 35%, forming a closed loop of 'Issuance - Trading - Interaction'.
For ordinary investors, the Alpha (short-term opportunities) in the Meme sector changes every day, but the Beta (long-term opportunities) only has Pump - other Meme projects are mostly short-term speculation, lacking ecological support, while Pump has upgraded from a 'Meme issuance platform' to a 'Web3 social + financial' complex through functional iteration and user retention, possessing long-term growth logic.
IV. Potential New Main Line: Prediction Markets, from 'Niche' to 'Disrupting Insurance', Polymarket becomes the focus
Prediction markets are a potential new main line rising in 2025, with the core logic being 'hedging risks with transparent probabilities'. Currently, there are two leading platforms:
Kalshi: A late mover, with transaction volume soaring from $500 million to $1.5 billion in the past month, far exceeding Polymarket’s $800 million, with its advantages in compliance (has obtained CFTC license) and scene richness (covering elections, sports events, economic data, etc.);
Polymarket: An established platform in the industry, with steady data growth, and plans to launch a token (market rumors suggest a valuation of $3 billion), is a key target for ordinary investors to participate in the prediction market sector.
In the long run, the potential of prediction markets far exceeds the current scale - as insurance industry experts say, the essence of the insurance industry is 'financial packaging based on probabilities', and prediction markets allow users to directly access transparent probabilities and autonomously hedge risks (for example, predicting the probability of natural disasters in a certain region and buying corresponding put contracts in advance), which is expected to disrupt the traditional insurance 'black box odds' model in the future.
The pain point of the current sector is the scarcity of secondary targets. Apart from waiting for Polymarket to issue tokens, attention can be paid to new projects in the primary market (such as Hyperliquid's HIP-4 proposal for event-driven prediction markets), but liquidity risks and project landing uncertainties in the primary market should be noted.
V. Alternative Perspective: The only main line is projects that 'have income, have profit, and have repurchase'
If filtered from the perspective of 'fundamentally grounded', the only main line in the current crypto market is projects that 'have real income, have profit, and are repurchasing tokens', with only two targets meeting the criteria:
$Hype: Focused on crypto asset market making, with net profit exceeding $200 million in Q2 2025, plans to use 50% of profits for token repurchase, with a current P/E ratio of only 15 times, valuation is at a low level;
$Pump: In addition to Meme issuance and social business, its live broadcast rewards and advertising revenue have already achieved profitability, with a net profit of $120 million in Q2 2025, and a repurchase ratio of 30%, combining Meme popularity with fundamental support.
The advantage of such targets lies in their 'strong anti-cyclical capability' - even if the overall market adjusts, their profit and repurchase mechanisms can support the token price, suitable for investors with a lower risk appetite who focus on long-term value.
Pay attention to crypto veterans, track the dynamics of stablecoins/RWA, AI Agents, prediction markets, and other sectors in real-time, dissect the core logic and valuation changes of various projects, and share investment opportunities and risk avoidance strategies during the switching of main lines in the crypto market to help you accurately grasp direction in a complex market!
