"The "severance" in cryptocurrency trading" sounds easy to say, but few can truly achieve it. However, it is precisely a crucial part of trading. To avoid review issues, this article will only discuss ETH as an example, with other cryptocurrencies saved for future articles.
Let’s first talk about the first "severance": cutting off the empty illusion of price, abandoning blind and foolish waiting, and facing the market with an objective and serious attitude.
Regarding the future trend of prices, in my opinion, there are mainly two methods of expectation. The first is to use technical means for prediction. This method can yield objectively visible points, with specific data available for quantification and reference. Technical tools such as moving averages, Bollinger Bands, star lines, and golden lines all belong to this category. Among them, the star line can play a powerful guiding role when prices lack reference points and venture into unknown territories of new highs and lows; the golden line provides good guidance for price fluctuations and stays within known areas. Common Western technical indicators like moving averages and Bollinger Bands are lagging indicators, making it difficult to provide more accurate insights and predictions. In this regard, the star line offers earlier references, which can somewhat soothe traders' unrealistic empty illusions.
Secondly, it is the trader's own empty fantasies and blind expectations. In other words, it is just wild guessing. For example, in the last bull market, many people shouted that Bitcoin would reach 100,000, and in this round, someone shouted 200,000. I believe that this kind of baseless wild guess is the most deadly flaw in trading. Because the guessed price is very likely to be completely wrong, trading based on such erroneous assumptions, even if the trader is a 'diamond hand' (steadfast holder), will ultimately be difficult to avoid becoming a loser.
In order to help everyone understand this more intuitively, I can only use my own operations and examples from people around me or fans who have asked, as this will provide a more intuitive understanding of this point.
The price in the image is for May, which I released in advance; integration of knowledge and action. I also operate according to the guidance of star lines, as shown in the discussion about highs with a friend:
For myself, ETH swing trading, this wave of operations is to buy at 1800, buy at 1434, sell at 2600, 2715, buy at 2200, sell close to 3800, and in the future, buy at 3000, 2800. If ETH cannot be bought in the future, then forget it; if the risk-reward ratio is not suitable, I will not get on board again. I do not trade Bitcoin; I have mentioned it in previous articles repeatedly, close to 100,000 and over 110,000, and I have already cleared it. Even if I sold off, it doesn’t matter because that was my plan. As for other altcoins like VINE, I love this coin so much. Regardless of on-chain, within the network, or contracts, I have made many multiples already.
Why don’t I wait for 5000, 10,000? That's because I never cling to the market; the market is always right. The strong hands are my bread and butter; as long as I can make money, that’s enough. Earning visible money is already very comfortable. I don't want to engage in blind waiting and expectations.
On the star line prediction chart, the current level of ETH is the K-line rising star prediction for April 2025. The 8-line pierces back, the 9-line is optional. The magical thing is that mystical predictions and human nature always align; everyone loves to cut losses at the 8 and 9 lines during declines and chase at the 8 and 9 lines during rises. As shown in the figure:
3836 is visible; this is called price expectation, price insight. 4163 is optional; in fact, the difference between the two is minimal. During this bull market, it is very easy to linger at the 8 and 8.5 lines, and the 9 line is very likely to be unreachable.
As shown in the figure, this is the powerful resistance level for ETH that I mentioned earlier, 4372, which belongs to the highest peak volume price of the month. Want to break the previous high?
First, stand firm at 4372! If the market stops at 3900 and starts a long-term wash, can you accept that?
Due to the guiding positions coming from the star line at 3836 and 4163, there is no need to be too greedy. Earning the vast majority is enough, so I choose to exit.
The future price judgment of ETH will still be based on previous articles regarding ETH; currently, there will be no changes.
Look at the decline, whether it drops first then rises, or rises first then drops. The positions below have great cost-effectiveness:
Integration of knowledge and action, the first chart shows the position of the strong line, the second chart shows the daily line’s falling star position. I only use this as a reference; I do not use moving averages, Bollinger Bands, or other complex indicators.
The white line is easy, the blue line is difficult.
2819? 2772 and 2669 resonance, again 8-line and a half? This is what I call price guidance; this is an objective guess, not an empty fantasy.
For example, a coin I like the most this year, VINE, has gained many times in every chain on-chain. For the locked large market cap VINE, I also exited based on peak volume lines and star lines.
Bought at the bottom 0.03 peak volume and 0.024, sold most at high position peak volume 0.15, sold part at 8-line 0.166, close to 9-line but unable to go up, all sold out on the right side. Will VINE be able to reach a market value of 1 billion dollars in the future? The current star line prediction has several large-level turning points, with the maximum seeing over 400 million. The next article will update the charts. But I don't force it; this coin has basically ended for me because my expectations have already been met.
The first point of letting go in the example ends here, cutting off empty fantasies about prices, bidding farewell to blind and foolish waiting, and treating the market objectively and seriously.
See as much as you can see; selling off will always earn. Firmly execute your trading system; it's okay even if you are wrong.
Empty fantasies and price delusions belong to excessive greed. I have seen too many people with massive profits, obsessed with waiting for psychological prices, which can never be reached, leading to a situation where they go from profit to loss. This is simply unacceptable!
As a mature and steady trader, one should decisively exit when reaching expected profits, entering and exiting in batches to secure layered profits, and refuse to stubbornly hold positions.
The current high position expectation for ETH is still based on previous earlier articles. Important turning points for ETH in the future will still be updated.
The second point of letting go is: refuse to rely on news, refuse to trust people, whether they are institutions or individual analysts. Refuse to waste time being obsessed with news circles.
First, look at the most recent chart; it is worth reflecting on.
This is the news image related to ETH; look at the time this news was released and where the price is.
Is the price high or low?
The time point for the release of favorable policies.
It can be found that the time for good news to be released is always at the highest point of the price stage. Whenever the price reaches the top, good news will follow, and buyers will swarm in, while the strong hands happily dump their goods.
Why didn’t he release this good news here at 1385?
In fact, the price at 1385 pierced through the largest historical peak volume line of ETH at 1434. This is a super buy point that occurs once every few years.
In fact, at that time, someone asked if it would drop to 1000 or 800? I said in my article that 2000, 3000, and 3500 would have someone chasing and asking if they could still buy.
I have indeed received a lot of private messages, especially when the price is at 3800 and 3900, and some people actually went long!
1400 doesn’t go long, 1500 not much, 2000 not much. Even 3000 not much, must go long at 3800 or 3900? How much profit can there be if it goes up?
In fact, prices at every lowest point are always where no one dares to buy, with negative news overwhelming. The prices at the highest points are also driven by FOMO information, making people just want to chase. This is the biggest trap.
This is a very noteworthy issue that I believe everyone should think deeply about.
Investment often only needs to follow the most basic and essential nature of things and should not be deceived by their glamorous appearances. Especially, do not blindly believe in any so-called authority. Does wearing a suit and tie and ringing the bell at Nasdaq make one an authority? If you focus on the news, on group chat FOMO, allowing your emotions to fluctuate, you will always be in danger.
Anyone's analysis is temporary; it cannot always resonate with you to make strategy adjustments. Moreover, the most important thing is that all of the analysis may be wrong, so in the trading market, one can only trust themselves.
The third point of letting go: reduce market watching time, let trading trend towards calmness, and let trading return to simplicity. Only use trading techniques you are good at, and firmly execute your own trading plan.
This might be the hardest point for beginners; many people keep staring at the 1-hour or even half-hour minute lines, constantly checking the market, worrying whether it will drop or go up. Personally, I look at the time points of 4H, daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and yearly. I don’t look at small cycles because they are too easily distorted. Earning that money is unnecessary; what I want is the large fluctuations and profits from ambushes on the left side, checking occasionally every few days.
In fact, when you have set a view on a coin, ordered, set take profit and stop loss, and strategy, it is actually correct. However, overly frequent watching of the market will make you not only hesitate but also prematurely take profit or stop loss, even cancel correct orders.
A good analyst is not necessarily a good trader, but a good trader must be a good analyst, an analyst who integrates knowledge and action.
The trading techniques on the market vary greatly, with too many indicators and various technical categories, but only what suits oneself is the best.
The fourth point of letting go: this is a completely false and manipulated market; the K-line is completely an illusion. All varieties are merely tools for monetization; there is no need to support or favor any variety after you sell it. Don’t hold onto garbage coins; cut losses in time.
The market is always correct; it allows you to buy and sell freely. However, one must guard against the malice of strong hands. The simplest point is to buy low and sell high. Selling off garbage coins will only make you sink into the abyss long-term.
Manipulation, double kill.
Manipulation, rapid rise after washing the plate, the previous high can be broken at any time, but wearing out the user's funds is more important.
The market's rise and fall is controlled by strong hands. In the crypto circle, being able to make money and multiply many times is entirely about following the strong hands and earning money along with the trend. Varieties without strong hands are stagnant, like last bull market stars and this bull market's junk DOT and others.
In fact, knowing that your judgment was correct, you made a profit, and you think it’s the high point, but ultimately you didn’t profit and instead lost your capital. That’s just not worth it.
Bull and bear markets are important, but price action is even more important. Continuously buying low and selling high is the most crucial.
Currently, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and BNB are strong main coins in the bull market, but many altcoins have already fallen into a deep bear market.
This indicates the market abandoned by the strong hands; the existence of retail investors is just mutual cutting and collapsing. There is no lowest, only lower; prices that break below the peak volume varieties should not be participated in, such as DYDX, GLMR, BLUR, strk, fil, etc., too many to list.
Good coins will always exist, and there will be many opportunities in the future!
Things become successful in secrecy, making money quietly~~
I am Ah Xin, only doing real trading; the team still has places available.
