$ETC /USDT — Price ≈ 20.409 (17 Sept 2025, 13:06:50 UTC)

Bias: SHORT (~58% probability)

🔎 Market Context

1D: Price < EMA50; EMA50 > EMA200; RSI ~44.6; ATR ~0.91; BBW ~9.85 → mixed range

4H: Price < EMA50 & EMA200; RSI ~40.8; ATR ~0.30; BBW ~6.71 → transition / bearish tilt

1H: Price < EMA50 & EMA200; RSI ~49.1; ATR ~0.12 → near entry zone

15M (Trigger): RSI ~54.6; ATR ~0.058 → watch momentum at entry

Key Level: 1H EMA50 ≈ 20.522

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📉 Trade Setup (SHORT) — Near Entry

Entry Zone: 20.379 – 20.440 (mid ~20.409)

Targets:

🎯 TP1: 20.286 (~1× ATR_1H)

🎯 TP2: 20.163 (~2× ATR_1H)

🎯 TP3: 20.040 — HTF structural target (nearest 4H/1D EMA or ~3R fallback)

Stop-Loss: 20.532 (~1× ATR_1H above entry)

⚠️ Risk: Allocate 10–20% equity. Use x3–x5 leverage if suited. Move SL → breakeven after TP1.

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👀 Notes

1H + 4H trend align bearish; 15M RSI suggests a potential entry confirmation.

Setup remains valid while price stays below 21.010.

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❌ Invalidation / Flip

Invalidation: 4H close above 21.010 → SHORT setup fails.

Flip to LONG if price holds above invalidation for ≥2× 4H candles.

💡 Alternate LONG Plan (if flip confirmed)

Entry: 21.030 – 21.092 (mid ~21.061)

Targets: TP1 21.184 | TP2 21.307 | TP3 21.430

Stop-Loss: 20.938