🔍 What the market shows today
Bitcoin ($BTC ) is trading around $116,300–$116,700, up about +1-1.3% over 24h and +4-5% over 7 days.
Ethereum ($ETH ) remains close to $4,480-$4,500, supported by the influence of institutional flows via ETFs, but it struggles to break an important resistance in the $4,800 zone.
The market as a whole appears optimistic ahead of the Fed's decision on rates. Expectations of a 0.25 percentage point cut weigh on sentiment.
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📈 Technical analysis: key levels & scenarios
Crypto Current estimated price Supports to watch Major resistances Likely scenario
BTC ~ $116,500 Critical support zone between $113,500-115,000 (20/50 day EMA); below, benchmarks: ~$111,000, then ~$105,000. Immediate resistance around $116,800-117,000; beyond that, possible target $120,000-123,000. If BTC breaks $116,800 with volume, possible acceleration towards $120-123k. Otherwise, rejection → return to support $113-115k.
ETH ~ $4,480-4,500 Strong support around $4,450-4,500; also 200-day EMA around ~$4,465. Strong resistance around $4,800, then $5,000+ zone if breakout confirmed. If ETH can break $4,800, strong chance of rally towards $5,000+. If rejection persists, risk of drop towards $4,300-4,450.
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💡 What it means (beginners & experts)
Beginners: watch support levels as 'safety nets' — here $113-115,000 for BTC, ~$4,450 for ETH. If these areas break, it may trigger rapid movements.
Experts: keep an eye on volume signals around resistances, the 20/50 day EMAs for BTC, the 200 EMA for ETH, and ETF flows. These factors will be crucial to determine if the market confirms the bullish bias or prepares for a reversal.
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⚠️ Weak signals / Risks
Many analysts warn that if the Fed does not cut rates or if surprise economic data is poor, markets could quickly correct below the mentioned supports.
ETH faces repeated rejections below the $4,800 resistance, which may be a sign of technical fatigue.
Macroeconomic uncertainty (inflation, US employment, etc.) remains very present, increasing the potential for returns of brutal volatility.
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⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research before making a decision.
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❓ Question
Do you think BTC will surpass $117,000 this week to confirm a breakout, or will it be pushed back below $115,000 again?
– Yes, imminent breakout
– No, rejection and return to support
