$TIA
Celestia (TIA) Pumped 9.64% in the past 24h to $1.84, outperforming the broader crypto market (+0.94%).
Key drivers include bullish technical momentum, strategic token buybacks, and anticipation of reduced inflation post-upgrade.
Technical Breakout – Price reclaimed critical moving averages
Supply Shock Mitigation – Foundation’s $62.5M token buyback from Polychain
Ecosystem Momentum – Lotus upgrade cuts inflation to 0.25%, staking reforms
Deep Dive
1. Technical Breakout (Bullish Impact)
Overview: TIA broke above its 20-day SMA ($1.64) and 7-day EMA ($1.65), with RSI (61.36) signaling growing bullish momentum. The MACD histogram turned positive for the first time since August 2025.
What this means: Short-term traders likely entered positions after the breakout, amplified by rising volume (+39% to $125M). Historically, TIA has rallied 15-20% after sustained closes above the 20-day SMA.
Key level: Holding above $1.80 could target Fibonacci resistance at $1.91 (23.6% retracement).
2. Strategic Buyback (Mixed Impact)
Overview: On 24 July 2025, the Celestia Foundation purchased 43.4M TIA ($62.5M) from Polychain Capital, redistributing tokens under controlled unlocks through November 2025 (Celestia Blog).
What this means: While this absorbed immediate sell pressure, concerns linger about future unlocks (409M TIA vesting through 2027). The move temporarily reduced circulating supply growth from 995K to 344K daily tokens post-August.
3. Lotus Upgrade Sentiment (Bullish Impact)
Overview: The pending Lotus upgrade (live on Mocha testnet) proposes slashing TIA’s inflation rate from 5% to 0.25% and locking staking rewards proportionally to vesting schedules.
What this means: If implemented, net TIA issuance could turn negative by Q4 2025, creating deflationary pressure. Developers also anticipate improved cross-chain interoperability via Hyperlane integration, boosting modular blockchain adoption.
