In the past two years, people in the crypto circle have been unable to escape a question: Is there still a chance for the altcoin season?

Looking at the market, it is clear that Bitcoin is advancing rapidly, with institutional funds pouring in, making it look incredibly prosperous. However, the vast majority of altcoins have completely failed to keep up, with many coins' market values dropping by over 95% compared to the previous cycle. Even some new projects that were once highly praised are now struggling to survive. Ethereum has been frustrated for a long time, but only recently, thanks to new play styles like the 'coin-stock model', has it managed to catch a breath.

Yet even with Bitcoin breaking previous highs and Ethereum rising temporarily, the market sentiment towards altcoins remains low. Everyone is waiting for a crazy summer like in 2021—when funds flooded in and almost all coins surged in a frenzy.

But to be honest, such scripts are unlikely to be repeated exactly this time.

Why?

In a word: the times have changed.

In the previous bull market, it was more driven by excessive liquidity + market frenzy + retail FOMO. But now, Bitcoin is increasingly resembling 'institutional assets', with large amounts of capital entering through compliant channels like ETFs; these big funds will not casually throw money at small-cap altcoins.

Moreover, the global macro environment is no longer in the crazy easing state of the past; interest rates are higher, regulations are stricter, and the market is more rational. Do you expect funds to suddenly flood into thousands of altcoins? Difficult.

Does that mean there won't be a season for copycats?

Not really.

What’s more likely to happen is a 'differentiated version' of the season for copycats—prices will rise, but not all at once; instead, they will rise in rotation and structurally.

For example:

Some projects with real ecosystems, real users, and innovation will emerge;

Some sectors may suddenly explode due to hot events (like AI, blockchain games, new public chains, RWA, etc.);

Funds will be more selective and will no longer 'recklessly gamble' on various small coins.

In other words, the frenzy of a broad market rally is difficult to replicate, but opportunities still exist. You need to be better at choosing and waiting.

What insights does this have for ordinary people?

Don't expect to get rich just by holding coins: in the past, you could double your investment with your eyes closed, but now you need to do your homework to see if the project has real value, cash flow, and a reliable team.

Focus on the rhythm of sectors: funds may come in waves, first Bitcoin, then Ethereum, and then a few mainstream tracks (like DeFi, Layer 2, Meme, GameFi, etc.), gradually spreading.

Patience is more important than anything: since it’s a slow bull market with rotation, you can't play with a chasing-high mentality; it’s more suitable to accumulate at lows, keep patient, and not easily get washed out.

Pay attention to new narratives and new play styles: just like Ethereum attracted a wave of attention with its 'coin-stock model', new things always have opportunities. Whether you can discover them in advance depends on your information acquisition ability.

To summarize:

Don't look at the 2024 market with the eyes of 2021.
The season for copycats may come, but it will no longer be a 'rise of all', but rather 'selecting the best'.
If you're still waiting for all altcoins to take off together, you might miss the real opportunity.

This time, what we need to do is not blindly wait for a frenzy, but to stay calm and capture those truly valuable signals amidst market differentiation.

Remember: no matter how excellent a fisherman is, he won't go out to sea during a storm. Protect your principal well and patiently wait for sunny days.

Follow the old horse, not only will he teach you to 'fish', but he is also willing to teach you how to 'fish'.

The door to the crypto world is always open, but only by going with the trend can you have a life that goes with the trend.

If you find it useful, please save it, read it repeatedly, and keep it in mind.