Recently, the fluctuations in the crypto circle have made many investors exclaim 'heart racing'—the short premium rates of Bitcoin options and MSTR suddenly surged, and on August 25, there was another wave of sudden crashes without warning, with Ethereum's price soaring and then falling back. What secrets are hidden behind these signals? We use three sets of key data to analyze the current market situation, helping you grasp the changes in September!

Signal 1: Market sentiment 'brake pads' activated

As the inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs slows down, the short premium rate of 'Bitcoin concept stocks' like MSTR has risen to historical highs. Behind this is the divergence of institutional funds—on one side, traditional funds are indirectly leveraging Bitcoin through MSTR (the model of issuing bonds to buy coins and recursively issuing stocks makes MSTR a 'call option without an expiration date'), while on the other side, short-term profit-taking is being realized at high levels. Data shows that MSTR's current premium rate exceeds 112%, reflecting that the market's expectations for further Bitcoin price increases have already been exhausted.

Signal Two: $106,000 is the bull-bear 'line of life and death'

The flash crash on August 25 made the market sweat, but don't rush to be bearish! The current Bitcoin price remains steadily in the 'golden chip zone'—between $93,000 and $120,000, with a total of 5.5 million Bitcoins accumulated, and an average cost of about $106,000. This position is like a 'supply station' in a marathon; if it falls below, it could trigger panic selling, but if it holds, it means the bulls are still in control of the rhythm. Historically, every time it touches this area, Bitcoin has welcomed a stronger rebound.

Signal Three: New funds are 'surging in the undercurrent'

Don't just focus on ETFs! After the U.S. 401(k) pension investment threshold was relaxed, over $8.7 trillion in 'retirement funds' are eyeing the market. The crypto-friendly policies promoted by the Trump administration have provided a legitimate entry channel for institutional funds. Data shows that in the second quarter of 2025, several sovereign wealth funds are still increasing their Bitcoin holdings, while Ethereum is attracting more developer ecosystem funds due to technological upgrades (such as sharding and RISC-V architecture). This explains why Ethereum's price deviates from its cost to a three-year high but can still maintain volatility—fund inflow hedges against selling pressure.

September Strategy: Survival Guide for a Volatile Market

1. Bitcoin: $106,000 is the bull-bear dividing line; if it falls below, be wary of a deep correction; if it holds, look towards $120,000;
2. Ethereum: The $4,000-$4,600 range may be the main battlefield for 'time for space', focus on Layer 2 progress and RISC-V ecosystem breakthroughs;
3. Risk Warning: Beware of the corrective drop triggered by MSTR premium rate decline, as well as short-term volatility caused by the Federal Reserve's fluctuating policies.

The market is always changing, but the underlying logic remains unchanged—technological upgrades, institutional entry, regulatory trends. This September, reduce the chasing after rises and falls, and increase deep thinking.

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