ETH reveals key support! The secrets behind the fake non-farm data, exclusive interpretation and operational strategy by Financial Sister!
Attention crypto friends! Today, let's dig into ETH's "life and death line" and the shocking secrets behind the fake non-farm data!
Technical analysis: Currently, ETH is priced at 4309 USD, close to the rising trend line of the 1-hour candlestick. From the chart, 4271 USD is the recent key support level, and if it breaks, it may drop to the strong support at 4205 USD; while the upper resistance is at 4352 USD, and once it breaks through, it is expected to challenge 4428 USD. The BOLL indicator shows the price is close to the lower band, and RSI is hovering at a low level, indicating short-term rebound momentum. It is recommended to focus on the range fluctuation between 4271-4352 USD.
Suspicion of fake non-farm data: The non-farm data released last night showed an increase of only 22,000 people, far below the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate surged to 4.3%! Strangely, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has significantly revised the data for the previous two months, and this "data washing" operation has raised strong doubts in the market about the authenticity of the data.
For example: The non-farm data in June 2024 exceeded expectations and caused Bitcoin to plummet 4.5% in a single day, while this time the weak data unexpectedly raised "rate cut expectations," revealing the market's skepticism about the credibility of the Federal Reserve's policies—after all, even Trump publicly questioned the data being politically manipulated!
The non-farm data affects the crypto market through three paths: First, it directly affects the US dollar index; weak data often raises risk aversion, benefiting assets like Bitcoin and ETH—"digital gold"; second, through the transmission of Federal Reserve policies, when rate cut expectations strengthen, institutional funds flow into crypto ETFs; third, market sentiment fluctuations, data fraud intensifies investors' distrust of the traditional financial system, instead promoting a shift towards decentralized assets.
The current market is in a dual fog of "data authenticity" and "policy games." The technical indicators show that ETH has strong support near 4271 USD, while the news of the fake non-farm data may become a short-term catalyst.
However, beware of the risk of "good news fully priced in"—if the market overly bets on rate cuts, any failure of this policy may trigger a crash.
The market is always full of uncertainty, but rational analysis + strict risk control is the way to survive in the long term.
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