The so-called "extreme reversal" in the virtual currency market is essentially a short-term fluctuation dominated by speculative capital, rather than a rule. Recently, some market voices have mentioned three types of signals that need to be re-examined from a risk perspective:
1. Interest rate reduction cycle: Past interest rate cuts have often been regarded as "emotional catalysts," but the virtual currency market lacks real support. After the main players create momentum, it is still the ordinary participants who ultimately foot the bill;
2. Altcoin fluctuations: The so-called "bottoming out" is actually a false impression created by capital manipulation—the bottom can be ground for months or even years, and it is not an "opportunity" after retail investors exit, but rather a process where capital waits to lure in more investors. Previously, some first-tier coins were speculated to increase by dozens of times, which essentially created a profit effect to entice retail investors to chase higher prices emotionally, ultimately leading to a harvest at the peak;
3. The ‘Cycle Theory’ of Bitcoin: The so-called ‘three-year cycle’ of virtual currency has no scientific basis. The severe fluctuations that may occur at the end of the year only demonstrate that its price is not constrained by normal market logic and may collapse at any time due to capital withdrawal.
The ‘pump and dump’ of altcoins is an outright capital manipulation, always occurring when retail investors least expect it: when a certain type of coin is in a frenzy across the network, it is often a precursor to a collapse; and the so-called ‘preemptive layout’ is merely a trap set by a few capital players, making it impossible for ordinary participants to predict.
Looking back at past market performance, the ‘anti-fall’ illusion of virtual currency is highly misleading: three years ago, the rhetoric that ‘Bitcoin is finished’, three months ago the pessimism that ‘Ethereum is done’, and now the bearish outlook on altcoins all seem to indicate a repeated ‘reversal’ in the market, but in reality, capital is attracting attention by creating volatility. Even if some coins complete the so-called ‘repair’ or ‘reversal’ in the short term, it cannot change their fundamental nature of lacking value support and the possibility of going to zero at any time—after three years of sideways movement, two weeks of repair, and two days of rebound after a drop, these extreme fluctuations only confirm the irrationality and high risk of the market.
It is necessary to recognize clearly that there are no ‘real opportunities’ in the virtual currency market, only traps set by capital:
• The so-called ‘opportunity when everyone is wailing’ is, in fact, capital lowering prices to lure in chips;
• The so-called ‘be wary when the drums are beating’ is essentially a signal for capital to raise prices for selling;
• The claim that ‘fear is the bottom and greed is the top’ is merely speculative rhetoric, as virtual currency prices have no actual anchor point, making it impossible to judge bottoms and tops.
Ordinary participants attempting to chase the so-called ‘main uptrend’ will only fall into a vicious cycle of repeatedly chasing high prices and cutting losses at low prices. The current sideways fluctuation is not the ‘main force shaking the chips’, but rather capital looking for the next harvesting target.#币圈 #Web3 #贪婪 #九月加密市场能否突破？
