Last night, the market experienced a slight rebound due to the U.S. JOLTS data being lower than expected, indicating that the number of job vacancies in the U.S. fell more than expected in July, showing that hiring activity is slowing down, which indicates that the job market is indeed worsening. This situation is favorable for interest rate cuts, so both the U.S. stock market and cryptocurrency market turned optimistic. However, the real employment situation will need to wait for the non-farm data to be released on Friday to determine whether the U.S. job market is good or bad.
Looking back at the recent JOLTS low opening, apart from the COVID period, it was last September, when the data was released and the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by two basis points. Therefore, the market interprets this as a favorable data for interest rate cuts. Another market rumor is that Morgan Stanley sent a market newsletter to clients earlier this week, predicting that this Friday's non-farm data will become a turning point for the market, with a 90% chance that the S&P 500 index will rise after the data is released. Thus, the market generally expects the non-farm data to be favorable for interest rate cuts.
Tonight, the U.S. will first release the small non-farm data, unemployment numbers, and ISM services PMI. Although the main dish will be served on Friday, a bunch of employment-related data expected tonight will also bring some volatility to the market, so everyone can prepare their positions in advance. Currently, the trend appears to be optimistic; as long as there are no major issues with the non-farm data, the chances of an interest rate cut in September will be very high. However, sometimes the better the expectations, the more the market will move in the opposite direction when those expectations materialize, so attention should also be paid to related risks. Planning for September after the trend is confirmed on Friday is also an option.
"MICA Daily｜JOLTS Job Vacancies Open Low, Market Turns Optimistic, Boosting Stock and Cryptocurrency Markets" This article was first published on (Block Client).
