#RedSeptember
🔥 “What a Fed Rate Cut on September 18 Could Mean for Markets” 🔥
With Powell now prioritizing employment over inflation, a Fed rate cut this September looks increasingly likely. But what are the ripple effects?
📉 U.S. Stocks
High interest rates have kept global money parked in the U.S. Once investors price in cuts, capital may flow out, raising the risk of recession. This could deflate the current stock market bubble—bad news for Wall Street.
📈 China A-Shares
For China, a Fed cut could attract inflows of hot money. Still, a U.S. downturn might temporarily weigh on A-shares, especially in overheated sectors like AI and semiconductors.
🌍 Market Context
Last September 18, a surprise cut fueled a bull run.
This year, expectations are already priced in, with A-shares trading at mid-to-high levels.
Trading volume just crossed ¥3 trillion—similar to last year’s peak signal.
Regulators may prefer a steady, gradual bull market over a sudden spike.
🔮 Outlook
China’s economic bottom seems behind us, and core corporate earnings are nearing positive territory. If profits recover as the Fed eases, a “Davis Double Play” could spark a more sustainable bull cycle.
🎯 Strategy
Trim positions in overheated sectors while securing gains.
Hold commodities—they benefit when liquidity expands.
Be patient: history may echo, but this bull market is set to unfold more gradually.