The sharp drop in ETH early in the morning was not coincidental; it resulted from the interplay of data signals and human behavior. Below are the key points and operational suggestions.

1. Plunge: Early warning signs were present.

1. Market Update: At 3 AM, ETH dropped from $4,490 to $4,356, a decline of over $100, triggering hundreds of millions in contract liquidations. 2. Key Signals: The previous night, ETH reached $4,498 and fluctuated narrowly between $4,450 and $4,490, which is a typical 'trend change precursor'; on-chain data shows that dropping below $4,400 will trigger $1.012 billion in long liquidations, ultimately leading to a bearish market.

2. Driving Force: Validators withdrawing.

1. Data Performance: Over 1 million ETH (approximately $4.96 billion) pending withdrawal, with a validator exit waiting time of 18 days and 16 hours, setting a record.

2. Core Reason: ETH rose 72% in the past three months, validators 'cashing out', with pending ETH forming potential selling pressure, suppressing prices.

3. Good News: Pension funds entering the market.

1. Positive News: Australia’s $2.8 trillion pension system allows self-managed super funds (SMSF) to invest in cryptocurrency, with SMSF exceeding $460 billion; a 1% inflow would bring an additional $4.6 billion. 2. Rational Perspective: The short-term market is still digesting selling pressure, and positive news is unlikely to quickly boost confidence. 4. Strategy: Varies by individual • Aggressive Strategy: Suitable for those who can monitor the market in real-time and withstand 10%+ volatility; go long with light positions at $4,400, targeting $4,480-$4,500. • Conservative Strategy: Suitable for office workers and beginners; wait for a pullback to stabilize at $4,330 to go long, with a stop-loss at $4,300, targeting $4,450-$4,500. The market favors patient and analytical individuals, and one must balance long-term positives with short-term risks, aligning operations with personal risk tolerance. — Jingyan interprets the crypto space with 'data + humanity', follow for more rational analysis!#九月加密市场能否突破？