In brief
Bitcoin price indicators show that short-term holders are selling at a loss, which often heralds a local minimum.
URPD clusters demonstrate a significant concentration of coins at the $113,500–$116,900 level, making these areas critical resistance levels.
Holding the indicator above $107,000 maintains the bounce trend, with $113,000 being the first critical breakout threshold.
Bitcoin ($BTC ) is trading around $108,700, unchanged for the day but down over 6% in the last month and about 5% in the last week. The subdued Bitcoin price dynamics reflect overall caution in the market, but, judging by internal signals, on-chain trading trends are gaining strength.
The capitulation of short-term option holders, realized price clusters, and technical levels together indicate that the market is preparing for the next decisive step.
The short-term holder SOPR shows weak hands exiting
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) measures whether coins moved on-chain were sold at a profit or a loss. For short-term holders, who are usually the most active, this metric allows for real-time sentiment assessment.
In light of the recent Bitcoin price drop, the short-term SOPR fell to 0.982 (August 29), the lowest level in several months. This indicates that a significant portion of short-term contract holders are selling at a loss, often perceived as capitulation of weak players.
Historically, such behavior cleanses the market of short-term speculators, creating conditions for stronger players to enter.
A parallel can be seen on April 17, when SOPR reached 0.94, a yearly low. At that time, Bitcoin hit a low of $84,800, then bounced back 31.6% to $111,600, when SOPR rose above 1 again.
The current movement shows a similar situation, suggesting that this latest capitulation may signal the market reaching a bottom.
At the time of publication, the SOPR for short-term holders rose to 0.99 but remains around multi-week lows.
URPD reveals strong support and resistance clusters
The distribution of realized price UTXO (URPD) displays the latest changes in the current BTC supply, providing information on support and resistance levels. Each cluster represents price levels where large volumes of bitcoins were bought, creating natural barriers.
At the lower level, $107,000 closes a strong cluster of 286,255 BTC (1.44%), while $108,200 ($108,253.26 on the chart) closes 447,544 BTC (2.25%). Such concentration explains why the Bitcoin price stabilized around $108,000 despite ongoing selling pressure.
Interestingly, the last SOPR low coincided with Bitcoin trading around $108,300 — almost the same as the URPD cluster at $108,200 — confirming this area as a potential market bottom zone.
On the other hand, resistance is quickly building. At the $113,200 level (near the key level of $113,500), there are 210,708 BTC (1.06%), and at the $114,400 level, there are 220,562 BTC (1.11%). The most significant barrier is at $116,900, where 2.88% of the supply was last sold — the highest obstacle in this region. For bulls, reclaiming this zone is critically important for any sustainable bounce.
Bitcoin price levels to watch
From a technical perspective, the Bitcoin swing low at $107,300 remains a key invalidation level (close to the minimal key anchor of URPD at $107,000). Closing below this level will confirm the continuation of the bearish trend and refute the thesis of a market day.
Regarding the bounce, the return to $109,700 is the first sign of strength. Above this level, $112,300 (Fibonacci level 0.5) and $113,500 (Fibonacci level 0.618) are breakout zones that bulls need to reclaim.
Judging by the visual cues, $113,500 is a recurring rejection zone for the current Bitcoin price and remains the most critical level for a narrative shift.
So far, the story is clear. Weak hands are exiting (SOPR), strong hands are defending key clusters (URPD), and the price is hovering near the support level. The likely scenario is that the zone will hold and Bitcoin will stabilize, after which there will be a bounce.
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