#TrumpTariffs
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Legal Status
Court ruling: 7–4 federal appeals court decision → most tariffs under IEEPA ruled illegal (exceeded presidential authority).
Enforcement stay: Tariffs remain until Oct 14, 2025 → administration has window to appeal.
Next step: Case expected to reach U.S. Supreme Court (likely early 2026).
Tariff Structure
“Liberation Day” tariffs (April 2025):
10% baseline tariff on nearly all imports (from Apr 5).
Reciprocal tariffs up to 25–50% on select countries (from Apr 9).
Additional measures in 2025:
25–50% tariffs on steel & aluminum.
25% tariffs on goods from Mexico/Canada (conditional on USMCA).
U.S. average tariff rate surged from ~2.5% → 18–27%.
Economic Impact
Revenue: ~$28B tariff revenue in July 2025 (critical for budget balance).
Refund risk: Importers may claim billions in refunds if tariffs struck down.
Markets: Bond market volatility; potential for higher Treasury issuance & yields.
Consumers/businesses: Higher costs on goods (electronics, clothing, coffee, etc.); de minimis exemption eliminated, raising import costs on small online orders.
Key Issues
Separation of powers: Court stressed tariff authority belongs to Congress, not unilateral executive action.
Policy risk: Pending Supreme Court review introduces uncertainty for trade, fiscal planning, and global supply chains.
Stakeholders: Importers, small businesses, states, and global trading partners closely affected.