The game of funds and news: institutions openly cut, policy smoke bombs disrupt the market.
BlackRock's ETF continues to provide liquidity but with diminishing strength; large institutions are playing a high sell-low buy swing game, while retail investors have become the chips. More critically, the sharp drop in expectations for Fed rate cuts and the severe divergence in aggressive statements from the Treasury Secretary have made policy uncertainty cause the main players to hesitate, trapping the market in a wait-and-see deadlock. My view is: this is not a battle between bulls and bears, but the main players are using volatility to "wash" the retail investors' panic and greed, both of which are their prey.
Technical analysis on critical levels: low volume game, 112500 is the "lifeline" for both bulls and bears.
The price is consolidating around 113000 with declining volume, like two experts arm wrestling in the dark; whoever exerts strength first may expose a flaw. The BOLL middle track at 112500 is a short-term dividing line of strength and weakness; losing this level will test strong support at 111000; while the resistance at 114000 is like an "iron ceiling"; unless the volume increases above the usual level, any breakout will be a trap for the bulls. My exclusive perspective: although the MACD has not golden crossed, the green bars are shrinking, which is a hidden signal of weakening bear power, but the bulls need a strong volume bullish candle (possibly coupled with good news from Nvidia?) to confirm a reversal.
My aggressive trading plan: anticipate two scenarios, wait for the market to choose a direction, and strike decisively.
Breakout Scenario: If the volume (trading volume at least recovers to the MA5 average volume) breaks through 114200 and holds steady, follow the trend to go long, set a stop loss at 113500, and aim for the previous high of 117400.
Crash Scenario: If it breaks below 112500, the critical point for bulls and bears, do not rush to buy the dip. Patiently wait for stabilization signals in the institutional cost zone of 110800-111200 (such as a long lower shadow), then buy in batches; the probability of a rebound is very high.
Keep a close eye on Nvidia's earnings report tonight! This could be a "nuclear bomb" that breaks the balance; if the AI narrative exceeds expectations, it will drive risk appetite in the crypto market. For those who want to keep up with my trading rhythm in real-time, follow the pinned updates—those who like this now will receive the "escape pod map" before the next crash! The Block Gold team only serves ambitious lunatics; follow me.@区块之金 , leading you through this brutal forest, cutting through thorns!
