Although Caldera's ERA is in a growth phase, it still faces multiple real challenges in the context of intensified competition in the Layer2 track, and the way these challenges are addressed will determine whether ERA can grow from a 'potential token' into an 'ecological pillar'.
The most direct risk is 'homogeneous competition'. Currently, leading Layer2 tokens such as Arbitrum (ARB) and Optimism (OP) occupy over 70% of the Layer2 market share due to their first-mover advantage. Although ERA differentiates itself through 'modular customization', it needs to continuously invest resources to attract existing users—by the first half of 2024, Caldera plans to subsidize developers with 8 million ERA, accounting for 5.3% of the circulation during the same period. If this 'burning tokens for customer acquisition' model continues long-term, it may dilute the value of ERA.
The risk of technological dependence cannot be ignored. Caldera currently only supports Ethereum as its underlying public chain. If Ethereum experiences upgrade delays, fluctuations in Gas fees, or other issues, it will directly impact the operation of Layer2 based on Caldera, subsequently affecting the usage scenarios of ERA. For example, when Ethereum's Gas fees briefly surged to 300 Gwei in 2023, the number of Layer2 transactions on Caldera plummeted by 45%, and the turnover rate of ERA dropped from 12% to 6% on that day.
The breakthrough point lies in 'cross-layer expansion'. Caldera has planned to integrate with public chains such as Polygon and Solana, allowing developers to build Layer2 based on multiple underlying layers, with ERA serving as a unified cross-layer settlement token. If this plan is realized, the application scenarios of ERA will expand from 'Ethereum Layer2' to 'multi-chain Layer2 networks', and its value ceiling will also be raised accordingly.