Is the bull market really over? I'll tell you the answer in three phases.

In recent days, many people have asked me: "Has the bull market ended? Is it time to run?"

I want to break down this round of market into three phases, and perhaps you'll understand.

Phase One: At the beginning of 2024, once the BTC spot ETF is approved, off-market funds will flood in wildly. At that time, everyone will focus on BTC, waiting for a "sector rotation", but unfortunately, what comes is Bitcoin leading the rally while altcoins generally remain silent. Once BTC shows weakness, the market will directly experience a correction, possibly dropping below 50,000.

Phase Two: The Trump rally. Due to market anticipation of friendly policies towards crypto after his election, BTC will lead the way again. ETH and BNB will show little movement, only SOL will surge slightly due to meme hype. But once the tariff news settles, the market will cool off significantly.

Phase Three: The U.S. tariffs are not as aggressive as imagined; instead, the SEC loosens its grip on crypto, and the path for staking ETFs becomes clear. Some companies begin to treat cryptocurrencies as strategic reserves. Thus, BTC remains the core, but ETH, BNB, SOL, and even OKB perform well due to the "coin-stock concept".

Returning to now, the market has indeed been correcting for two weeks, but don't forget a few key points:

1. ETFs have not seen massive sell-offs.

2. Companies with strategic reserves are not dumping their assets.

3. The U.S. stock market remains stable, with the VIX around 15, far from panic levels.

Therefore, this round of decline is more like an emotional release regarding concerns about interest rate cuts in September and the U.S. economy, rather than a systemic collapse.

It's important to understand: From the beginning of 2024 to now, this is not a "full-blown bull market", but rather a structural bull market for compliant coins.

BTC and ETH still have rebound potential due to external funds and ETF support.

BNB and SOL are still not in a bear market because of the strategic reserve concept.

OKB continues to have potential due to its listing and public chain narrative.

But many altcoins have never even entered a bull market.

The conclusion is simple:

The bull market is not over, but it only belongs to a few leading coins. Stop fantasizing that all tokens can take off; most altcoins never had the qualification to participate from the start.