This morning, the fan group exploded, half were complaining about “XRP's distressing drop,” while the other half were asking “Can we buy the dip after the rate cut?” — Just as the market hadn't recovered from XRP's crash, Wall Street suddenly threw out a “bomb”: Morgan Stanley overnight issued a report, stating that the Federal Reserve will definitely cut rates in September, and will cut twice more (25 basis points in September and December), this news directly caused Bitcoin to rebound from 118,000 to 121,000, and the crypto market instantly shifted from “panic” to “excitement.”
But don’t rush in; today, we will thoroughly dissect the “logic behind Morgan Stanley's call for a rate cut, the true stance of the Federal Reserve, and whether XRP can buy the dip,” helping you avoid the pitfalls of “getting caught at a high” or “missing out on the market.”
First, let's look at Morgan Stanley's confidence in “guaranteeing” a rate cut: Powell's “dove tone” + Trump's “pressure,” the Federal Reserve has no way out.
Many people think “Morgan Stanley is just making empty promises,” but after reading the report and recent dynamics, it turns out this is not just talk — the Federal Reserve is now “under pressure to cut rates”:
Powell's 180-degree turn: from “fighting inflation” to “protecting the economy.”
At the Jackson Hole meeting, Powell's words held significant implications: he had previously emphasized “inflation hasn't reached 2%, and interest rate hikes may continue” but then mentioned “the labor market is clearly cooling, and layoffs are increasing”— seasoned fans understand this is the Federal Reserve's “signal before a rate cut.”
Before the rate cut in 2020, Powell said similar things, and a month later, liquidity was injected, Bitcoin rose from 3000 to 60000; in 2019, it was even more direct, after softening his speech, he cut rates three times within three months, and XRP surged from 0.2 to 0.9. Now that Powell is being lenient, it’s like handing the market a “confidence booster.”
Trump's “political pressure”: harder to bear than inflation.
Former President Trump recently urged at a campaign rally: “High interest rates have caused 100,000 small businesses in the US to close! If Biden doesn't cut rates, don't expect votes next year!” Next year is an election year; if the Biden administration doesn’t cut rates under pressure, they might lose votes in swing states.
Morgan Stanley clearly stated in the report: “Under the political cycle, Federal Reserve policies will tilt towards election votes” — simply put, even if inflation hasn’t completely come down, for the sake of votes, they must cut rates first.
A friend from Wall Street told me this morning: “Morgan Stanley daring to write ‘September must cut’ in the report means they have insider information; institutions are quietly increasing their Bitcoin positions, and last week ETF inflows were $500 million.”
Second, don’t celebrate too early! This “time bomb” hasn’t been defused; the rate cut may be a waste of waiting.
Morgan Stanley's report hides a harsh statement: “If the September non-farm data exceeds expectations, the rate cut may be postponed until December” — this is the key; next week’s non-farm data (new jobs added in the US) will directly determine “whether the rate cut can be realized.”
This is like “highlighting key points before an exam, but not knowing if they will actually be tested”:
If non-farm payroll data is below 180,000 (expected), it indicates the job market is really cooling, and the Federal Reserve will definitely cut rates, the crypto market will surge like it did in 2020;
If it exceeds 200,000, it indicates the economy can still hold, and the rate cut may fall through; Bitcoin and XRP are likely to drop back to 110,000 and $2.6 respectively;
Even if the data meets expectations, there are still “hidden dangers from the SEC”: Recently, XRP fell 15% due to rumors about “securities classification,” and if the SEC stirs up trouble after a rate cut, any increase will be reversed.
In 2022, I fell for this kind of trap: back then, Morgan Stanley called for “a December rate cut,” I bought the dip in ETH at $1800, but the non-farm data exceeded expectations, the rate cut fell through, and ETH dropped to $880, losing 50% — looking back, if I had waited for the data to come out before taking action, I wouldn’t have been stuck for so long.
Three, impact on the crypto market: If a rate cut really happens, can XRP reach $5?
Many people ask, “Can XRP take advantage of the rate cut announced by Morgan Stanley?” First, let's look at historical data:
In 2019, after the rate cut: XRP rose from 0.2 to 0.9, a 4.5-fold increase;
In 2020, after the rate cut: XRP soared from 0.15 to 1.9, a 12-fold increase;
Core logic: Rate cut = liquidity injection = money flows to high-risk markets, XRP, as a “top 5 cryptocurrency by market cap,” can always benefit from the “liquidity bonus.”
Now XRP has dropped to $2.8, which is already at a “low level”:
Support level: $2.6 is the bottom line of the last 3 pullbacks; the last time it dropped to this level, it rebounded by $0.3 within half a day;
Good news stacked: Besides the rate cut, XRP also has ETF expectations (Grayscale had submitted an application before), if both align, reaching $5 is not impossible;
Risk: If the rate cut falls through, whether $2.6 can hold is uncertain; after all, market sentiment is very sensitive, and even a slight disturbance can trigger panic selling.
Fan Xiao Lin told me: “I bought 1000 XRP at $3.1, should I add more now?” My suggestion is: “Don’t add yet, wait for Friday's non-farm data; if the data is good, add if it drops to $2.6; if the data is bad, add if it holds $3.0, don’t rush now.”
Four, three operational suggestions for retail investors: Don't bet on “rate cuts are guaranteed,” focus on these 2 signals.
Spot: Wait for “double signal confirmation” before buying the dip.
Signal 1: Non-farm payroll data below 180,000 on Friday, and Federal Reserve officials making “dovish statements” (for example, “will adjust policies based on the economy”);
Signal 2: Bitcoin stabilizing above 122,000, XRP stabilizing above $3.0 — these two positions are “turning points for sentiment,” stabilizing indicates that funds are entering;
Positioning: Even if the signal arrives, don’t go all in, first enter 30%; for instance, if you have 10,000 U, spend 3,000 U to buy Bitcoin/XRP, and wait for a pullback to add the rest.
Contracts: Don't open high multipliers, set the stop loss at “key support levels.”
Bitcoin contracts: within 5 times, stop loss at 115,000 (if it breaks this, it indicates expectations for a rate cut have cooled);
XRP contracts: within 3 times, stop loss at 25,500 (triggered if it falls below 2.6);
Yesterday, a fan opened a 10x long position on XRP without setting a stop loss, and when it dropped from 2.9 to 2.8, it directly liquidated, losing 8000U — high leverage contracts during volatile times act as a “liquidation accelerator.”
Don't fixate on XRP, these 2 coins can also be of interest.
Bitcoin: The biggest beneficiary of rate cuts and liquidity injections is the “large cap coin,” in 2020 it surged more than XRP.
ETH: The ecosystem has become increasingly stable post-merge; if rates are cut, institutions will prioritize increasing their ETH holdings, which are more stable than XRP.
Five, to be honest: don’t treat “rate cuts” as a “lifeline.”
The rate cuts in 2020 served as the “engine for the bull market,” but after the rate cuts in 2019, the crypto market also consolidated for 3 months — a rate cut doesn’t necessarily mean prices will rise; it also depends on whether “money will actually enter the market.”
What’s most important now: it’s not about guessing “if it can be cut,” but preparing “in both ways” — if the data is good, wait for a pullback, if the data is bad, try a light position, don’t gamble on “one shot to win or lose.”
Tonight, I will stay up late to watch the non-farm data's preview report, and I will sync it to the fan group early tomorrow morning. If there is a “solid signal for a rate cut,” I will inform everyone immediately. If you want to avoid “getting caught in a high” or “missing out on the market,” just follow me — in the crypto world, what you earn is “information disparity,” and even more so “patience”; only those who can wait will make money.
Comments area chat: Do you think the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September? If XRP drops to 2.8, will you buy the dip? Speak up, and I'll help you analyze the operation! #美联储政策影响 #比特币远古巨鲸持续出清 #BNB创新高
