This question has recently been hotly debated in the circle. Some confidently say 'it must reach', while others scoff, 'stop dreaming.' So let's break it down—can Bitcoin really surge to $300,000? The answer might not be that simple, but the story behind it is more fascinating than the price itself.
To conclude: Most people think it's difficult; $150,000 to $200,000 is a more realistic peak; $300,000 is not impossible, but it requires favorable timing, location, and people, especially continuous policy and capital support.
The bull market signal is full, but don't rush to bet.
From the current trend, Bitcoin has indeed 'exploded'. From the end of last year to the beginning of this year, the price once broke through $120,000, surpassing the critical resistance zone of $100,000 to $112,000, with market sentiment reaching unprecedented heights. Several hard-core drivers are behind this.
Global monetary easing has begun again. The US M2 money supply has returned to historical highs; with more money, it has to find a place to go. Stock markets, real estate, and crypto markets—aren't they all 'reservoirs'? Naturally, Bitcoin has become very popular.
The US has passed three cryptocurrency bills, and stablecoins have finally been 'legalized'. This is no small matter. It means the entire cryptocurrency market is being acknowledged by the mainstream financial system. Coupled with certain political families heavily investing in cryptocurrencies, the policy direction is clearly warming.
The trend of de-dollarization is rising. As the dollar weakens, capital begins to seek new anchor points. Some high-risk preference funds are flowing into Bitcoin, while others are moving towards euros, Swiss francs, or even emerging markets. Bitcoin is seen by many as 'digital gold'.
Doesn't it sound a lot like a bull market script? That's right, in the short term, this wave of market action does seem quite convincing. Some analysts believe that unless a major black swan event occurs, it is possible to rise to the $140,000 to $160,000 range.
But! Don't forget, Bitcoin may not be a 'safe-haven asset' at all.
Many people now tout Bitcoin as 'digital gold', claiming it is anti-inflation and can hedge against risks. But historical data proves otherwise.
For example, in June of this year, when news of Israel attacking Iran broke, gold jumped 3.5%, while Bitcoin plummeted 5.5%! In just a few days, one was up in the sky, the other down in the ground, with a gap of nearly 9%. Similar situations have played out repeatedly during geopolitical conflicts in October 2023 and April and October 2024.
What does this indicate? Bitcoin resembles a high-volatility risk asset more than a true safe-haven tool. Once a major event occurs—like a major country getting involved in a war or an economic crisis breaking out—it is very likely to be sold off by investors just like tech stocks.
What’s even more heartbreaking is that the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 Index is as high as 0.92. This means that if you hold both Bitcoin and tech stocks, your 'diversified investment' is actually a joke. Currently, the Nasdaq's valuation is even more exaggerated than during the internet bubble, and once the bubble bursts, Bitcoin is likely to suffer the same fate.
The 'left foot stepping on the right foot' game on Wall Street is unfolding.
If Bitcoin itself is a financial product, then the hottest trend right now is the capital magic of public companies 'buying coins to go public'.
The first to play this trick was MicroStrategy; initially, it was met with skepticism, but then the stock price skyrocketed, and Wall Street 'gods' immediately caught on—wow, it turns out you can play it like this!
As a result, a movement of 'buying shell companies and investing in cryptocurrencies' has begun with great fanfare. More than 100 companies have already followed suit, not only buying Bitcoin but also Ethereum, Ripple, Dogecoin, and so on... as long as it has a name, they are starting to stuff it onto the public companies' balance sheets.
The approach is as follows:
A whale of a certain coin is holding a large amount of altcoins that no one is willing to buy, making it impossible to sell.
He quietly buys a shell company on Wall Street, renames it 'XX Strategic Investment Company', and announces that its main business is holding a certain cryptocurrency.
Then he transfers part of the coins to the company's wallet and loudly announces, 'We hold YY coins worth XX million,' causing the stock price to soar immediately.
The company's net assets appear to skyrocket, and then it issues more shares to raise funds, part of which continues to 'buy coins', which actually goes into the whale's pocket.
The coins are still on the books, the whale's control remains unchanged, but the money has been cashed out, with almost no cost.
Isn't this a typical 'left foot stepping on the right foot, soaring to the sky'? Does it sound like a scam? But it's legal, and it's happening openly in the stock market.
The question is, how will these companies ultimately end? It's simple—once the hype passes, they announce 'insolvency' and go bankrupt. Meanwhile, the big players have already cashed out, holding coins at zero cost, and can continue to gradually sell in the secondary market.
Are you saying this is the crypto circle cutting into the stock market, or the stock market cutting into the crypto circle? It could possibly be a double kill, with the retail investors getting hurt on both sides.
So, is $300,000 really possible?
Yes, but the conditions are harsh.
If the US continues to inject liquidity, with ETF capital flowing in and favorable policies continuing, plus the inertia of the 2024 halving cycle still in play, a surge to a high point is not impossible.
Some predict based on historical models that this cycle's peak will be between $120,000 and $150,000, with an optimistic view of seeing $200,000.
$300,000? Unless there is a 'black swan + narrative revolution'—for example, turmoil in the global financial system, Bitcoin being officially recognized as a 'non-sovereign reserve asset', or large-scale national capital entering the market.
But there are also opposing views: when everyone thinks it can reach $300,000, it might not actually make it. Because the market is always about the minority making money; the stronger the consensus, the higher the risk.
Finally, let's talk about something real.
If you really want to participate, don't get stuck on the question of 'can it reach $300,000'. Short-term bull market signals do exist, but don't be greedy. Below $150,000 could be considered for gradual positioning, and a pullback around $90,000 might be an opportunity.
As for altcoins? Some boldly predict that during a market explosion, quality projects could easily surge 5 to 10 times, but the prerequisite is—you need to choose wisely. Don't dive headfirst into worthless coins, or you'll end up as fuel in someone else's capital game.
Ultimately, this round of market activity appears to be a Bitcoin frenzy, but behind it is capital hunting, narrative manipulation, and a reshuffling of global financial discourse.
Will Bitcoin reach $300,000? I don't know. But one thing is for sure—someone is using your faith to complete their withdrawal.
