Smart people lose more the more they fidget, I rely on 'single-mindedness' to win passively
On August 26, 2025, the crypto circle staged a 'collective flip of smart people':
A certain KOL's live broadcast calling: Chasing rising altcoins, 8 million U liquidated in 1 hour;
A certain exchange user: Leveraged all-in on MEME coin, account went to zero in 10 minutes;
A certain 'technical master': Drew 30 moving averages, ended up being controlled in the opposite direction by the market makers.
And me? I don't look at K-lines, don't touch leverage, don't chase news, using a set of 'dumbest' unorthodox methods, I rolled from 3000U to 24,000U.
Why do 'smart people' lose money?
Greedy: Wanting to catch every fluctuation, ended up getting slapped in the face repeatedly;
Urgent: Always wanting to get rich overnight, frequently switching coins, increasing positions, all-in;
Arrogant: Superstitious about technical indicators, yet unable to understand the simplest market emotions.
And my method is just 3 words: Play dumb!
II. Strategy breakdown: 3 steps of 'dumb method', exclusively harvesting the main force leeks
1. Choose coins: Only look for 'playing dead' consolidating coins, waiting for the main force to make a big move
Core logic: There is an iron rule in the crypto circle— the longer it consolidates, the harder it breaks out!
Main force requires time to accumulate, while retail investors always cut losses during consolidation;
Case: I once watched a coin consolidate for 13 days, bought it, and it directly surged by 62%.
Key points of operation:
Screening criteria: Consolidation ≥ 10 days, trading volume continuously shrinking;
Pitfall guide: Don't touch obscure coins or air coins, only choose mainstream coins in the top 50 by market cap.
2. Increase position: Only enter when the market goes crazy, to capture enough mid-stage profits
Counterintuitive operations:
Don't try to catch the bottom: The bottom is bought by the main force, not something retail investors can guess;
Don't chase the rise: After a 50% surge, the main force may unload at any time.
Position increase timing:
Price breaks through the consolidation range, and trading volume increases by over 200%;
MACD golden cross + Bollinger Bands opening, confirming trend initiation.
Position allocation:
Initial position 3%, increase position by 20%-50% after confirming the trend;
Case: A certain coin consolidated for 11 days before breaking out, I increased my position by 50%, and ultimately took profit at 38%.
3. Take profit: Withdraw! Withdraw! Withdraw!
Unorthodox mindset:
Immediately transfer 50% to stablecoins for every round of profit;
Set mobile stop loss for remaining positions; clear out if breaking below the 5-day moving average.
Why must you withdraw?
Prevent greed: Making money is the real skill, leaving it in the account is just an illusion;
Case: A fan rolled 200U to 6000U, relying on the iron rule of 'earn 10% and withdraw 5%'.
III. Practical case: 20 times in 3 months, I relied not on luck
Case 1: May 2025, ETH consolidation harvesting battle
Background: ETH consolidated at $3000-3200 for 21 days, with the whole network pessimistic, saying 'the bear market is coming';
Operation:
Initial position 3% (90U) ambush;
Increase position by 50% (150U) after breaking through $3200;
Take profit at $3600, profit of 40% (108U), withdraw 50% (54U).
Result: Later, ETH plummeted to $2800, but my account still made a profit of 46U.
Case 2: July 2025, explosive rebound of altcoins
Background: A certain obscure AI coin plummeted from 0.5U to 0.15U, the whole network cursed it as 'going to zero';
Operation:
Buy 3% (90U) after 15 days of consolidation;
Increase position by 50% (150U) when breaking through 0.2U;
Take profit at 0.35U, profit of 133% (238U), withdraw 100U.
Result: The coin subsequently plummeted to 0.08U, but I had already locked in profits.
IV. Risk control iron rule: 3 taboos to ensure you don't get liquidated
Reject leverage: 10x leverage = 10x risk, market makers specifically target leveraged traders;
Single coin position ≤ 10%: No matter how bullish, don't heavily invest to avoid going to zero risk;
Emotional trading ban: Drink, curse, delete apps when losing money, act again after calming down.
V. Why can't 'smart people' learn?
Cognitive trap: Always trying to predict the market with complex models, neglecting 'simple rules > metaphysical analysis';
Execution gap: Retail investors stare at the market for 16 hours a day but can't control their hands;
Human weaknesses: Fear of missing out, fear of losing, fear of being laughed at, but not fearing losing money.
VI. Ultimate strike: Challenge the '80 days to 8 times' plan
Rules:
Initial capital of 10,000U, only using the 'low buy consolidation + aggressive take profit' strategy;
Monthly operations ≤ 5 times, single position ≤ 10%;
Take out 50% when profit reaches 20%, pause trading when loss reaches 5%.
Result prediction:
If averaging 20% return per month, after 80 days the account ≈ 10,000 × (1.2)^6 ≈ 29,900U;
If capturing 1-2 instances of a 50% increase, you can directly multiply your investment by 8!
Conclusion: There are no stock gods in the crypto circle, only 'survivors playing dumb'
From today, uninstall all market software, turn off all community notifications, and only do three things:
Spend 10 minutes every day screening consolidating coins;
Decisively increase position when breaking out;
Immediately withdraw after making a profit.
Remember:
What the main force fears most is not the technical analysts, but the 'dumb ones who stick to the rules';
You can never earn money beyond your understanding, but playing dumb can still reap the excess understanding of the leeks!
