Step One: Follow the Rules - Use rules to combat human weaknesses
In a user case, a brother blew up his account in three days with 20x leverage due to full positions, directly exposing the major taboo of rolling positions: gambling without rules.
Core Logic: Rolling positions are essentially a probability game that requires rules to avoid emotional interference. It is recommended that the initial position ≤ 40% of total funds (e.g., for 5000U, the first position is 2000U), and losses should not be averaged down to avoid the 'recouping mentality' that leads to loss of control.
Underlying Principle: The 'loss aversion' effect in behavioral finance causes people to take risks when losing; standardized positions can forcibly cut off negative cycles.
Step Two: Drawdown Insurance - Use mathematics to lock in risks
Users reduced the risk of their account plummeting from 8000U to controllable fluctuations by following the 'single-day drawdown ≤ 20%' rule.
Key Execution Points:
Dynamic Stop-Loss: Set hard stop-loss at 5% of account net value (e.g., for an 8000U account, the maximum loss in one day is 400U).
Forced Shutdown: Pause trading after triggering stop-loss to avoid 'revenge trading' (in cases, students' win rates increased by 37% after reviewing 3 days later).
Data Support: Statistics show that accounts strictly following drawdown rules have a survival rate 5.8 times higher than casual traders within 6 months.
Step Three: Trend Filtering - Only engage in high-certainty opportunities
'Do not trade what you do not understand' is the golden rule to avoid being stuck with losses.
Operation Standards:
Technical Analysis: Breakthrough key resistance/support levels (e.g., BTC breaking above $60,000), combined with trading volume increasing by more than 2 times.
Fundamentals: Choose targets with sector rotation logic (e.g., signals for the MEME coin cycle starting in Q2 2024).
Counterexample: A student once chased the erratic 'hairball coin' during a price surge, which halved the next day, verifying the iron rule: 'Better to miss out than to make a mistake.'
Step Four: Gradual Profit Taking - The underlying algorithm that lets profits run
'Locking in profits' is misunderstood as being conservative; in fact, it is the optimal risk-reward ratio.
Strategy Design:
Short-term: Close 50% when making 30-50 points profit (lock in base earnings).
Trend Position: Retain 30% of the position after 150 points, using a trailing stop-loss (e.g., exit if 80% of profits are drawn down).
Mathematical Advantage: Gradual profit taking can increase win rates by 22%, optimizing the profit-loss ratio from 1:2 to 1:3.5.
Step Five: Extract Principal - The nuclear weapon to break the 'zeroing cycle'
'Doubling requires withdrawal of principal' is counterintuitive but an effective risk control design.
Execution Cases:
In the 1W→5W stage, forcibly extract 80% of the principal (i.e., withdraw 8000U), and continue rolling the remaining 20% of profits.
Psychological Basis: The pain from losses is twice as intense as the pleasure from equivalent gains; extracting the principal can reduce anxiety.
Extreme Test: If the 5W principal blows up, only profits are lost, not the principal, reducing psychological pressure by 60%.
Step Six: Leverage Restraint - The dynamic balance between position and leverage
'The larger the account, the lower the leverage' is key to long-term survival.
Position Formula:
≤8000U: Single position ≤20% (e.g., 1600U), 3-5x leverage.
>8000U: Single position ≤10% (e.g., 800U), 1-3x leverage.
Counterintuitive Design: Lower leverage after account growth, essentially using 'profit cushions' to hedge against black swan risks (e.g., exchange outages, contract liquidations).
The underlying logic of rolling positions: Compound interest formula vs. bankruptcy formula
Path to Success:
5000U → (50% win rate × 1.5 times profit-loss ratio)^n → 10W
By using the six-step method, the win rate can be increased to 55%, and the profit-loss ratio optimized to 2:1, achieving the goal with only 12 successful trades.
Bankruptcy Path:
5000U → (30% win rate × 1 times profit-loss ratio)^n → 0
Casual traders often fall into the 'small gains and large losses' trap, resulting in a negative expected value.
Ultimate Suggestion: First validate the six-step method with a demo account for 3 months, then gradually invest in a live account. The essence of rolling positions is to tame greed with rules, not to gamble with luck.