It's been a while since we talked about Ethereum, so let's discuss Ethereum today.

Recently, these few candlesticks really have a bit of a trick feel. The large bullish candlestick on the 22nd pulled up more than six hundred points, making people feel restless, but it didn't hold for long, and on the 25th, a large bearish candlestick came crashing down, taking away four hundred points, giving off a feeling of dark clouds gathering. The small bullish candlestick that closed yesterday had absurdly long upper and lower shadows, with bulls and bears fiercely tugging at this position, really seeing who gives in first.

The hourly chart is even more obvious. The breakout bullish candlestick at nine o'clock this morning rose almost ninety points, momentarily surging above 4450, but the volume didn't keep up, and it couldn't break through. Now it is oscillating back and forth in the range of 4451—4311, with the main force clearly testing, wanting to see who goes up first.

The indicators are also quite intriguing. The daily MACD has been in a death cross for a few days, with the bars shortening, indicating that the downward momentum is not as strong as before. A golden cross has appeared below the zero line on the hourly chart, suggesting a possible short-term rebound. The daily RSI has dropped from overbought to neutral, and the hourly RSI hasn't reached oversold, indicating there is still some room for an upward move. The EMA arrangement is still bullish, but the price is pressed below the short-term moving averages, and any attempts to rebound could easily be knocked back down.

I've been keeping an eye on the volume. On the 25th, the big drop saw trading volume spike to one million, which is a recent ceiling. Yesterday's rebound volume was only over two hundred thousand, and today in the morning session, it broke through but could only see over forty thousand; by the afternoon, the volume shrank, and the main force's attitude is very clear – they are observing.

In terms of operations, I see the 4350 area as a point, close to the previous low, and short-term accumulation there is acceptable. If it pulls back to around 4280, the integer support is obvious, and we can also consider a second round of accumulation. The lower bound of 4250 must not be broken; if it is broken, it means the rebound is basically over. Above, there is strong resistance at 4450 and 4500, with the previous high and short-term moving averages pressing down. If it can't break through, be careful of getting stuck. If it truly breaks through to above 4550 with accompanying volume, then the bearish logic becomes invalidated.

In summary, Ethereum is currently in a typical tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with neither side winning; it only seems to be smoking on the surface. Don't act impulsively, don't bet on direction, wait for it to reveal a flaw before taking action. After trading for over a decade, I've only remembered one thing: don't let the market lead you; let it show its flaws before you enter, keeping a steady hand is more important than anything else.