One, first break down the truth of ETH's 'sham-like fluctuation': bouncing around 4700 dollars is a washout, not a collapse, with two details hiding tricks.
Don't be scared by ETH's 'up and down' movement; this wave of fluctuations looks like 'it's going to cool down,' but in reality, it's 'the main force washing out.' Two details in the order book can reveal this.
1. During fluctuations, 'not deep in decline, not breaking high,' all key levels are hidden hands.
ETH's fluctuations in the past two days look significant, but it has not broken key ranges.
The support level at 4680 dollars feels welded in place—each time it drops to 4680-4700 dollars, there's buying power above 50 million U emerging. For example, when it dropped to 4682 dollars today, a large order of 20 million U directly pulled the price back to 4710 dollars, not allowing for any deep drop.
The resistance level at 4760 dollars is also tightly capped—every time it rises to 4750-4760 dollars, there are sell orders of 30 million U, for example, when it touched 4761 dollars this afternoon, a sell order of 15 million U instantly pushed the price back to 4720 dollars, but these sell orders didn't continue to hit; it seems 'deliberately suppressing prices.'
This kind of 'not deep in decline, not breaking high' fluctuation isn't something retail investors can create—it's clearly large funds 'selling high and buying low to wash out': scaring retail investors away when prices chase above 4750 dollars, and picking up panic selling chips below 4700 dollars. Once it's cleaned out, it will surge to 4800-4900 dollars. Just like when ETH surged from 1800 dollars to 2400 dollars in 2023, it experienced fluctuations between 1900-2100 dollars as a washout; at that time, everyone also criticized it as 'like altcoins,' but after the washout, it directly rose 300 dollars.
2. Trading volume 'reduced volume fluctuation,' selling pressure hasn't increased at all.
The most telling issue is trading volume—when ETH fluctuates, the 24-hour trading volume drops from 25 billion U to 21 billion U, a decrease of 16%, which is 'reduced volume fluctuation.' What does this indicate? It's not that everyone is panic selling, but that there is a 'temporary stalemate' between bulls and bears, and selling pressure is decreasing.
Comparing to previous real declines, when ETH dropped from 4800 dollars to 4200 dollars in 2024, the trading volume increased from 22 billion U to 30 billion U, 'price drop with volume increase' indicates significant selling pressure; now 'price fluctuation with volume reduction' indicates no one really wants to sell. The fluctuation is just 'superficial excitement,' while the actual chips are very stable.
Two, the whale 'large-scale sell-off' trap: Selling off altcoins isn't a run away, it's switching to ETH? On-chain data holds the evidence.
Recently, the whales' 'large-scale sell-off' isn't panic selling; rather, it looks like 'precise switching'—selling off altcoins to free up funds to prepare for ETH, with three on-chain signals proving this.
1. 1 billion U flows out of altcoins, but 500 million U quietly flows into ETH.
On-chain data shows that in the last 24 hours:
Altcoins such as SOL, ADA, and DOT have collectively flowed out 1.02 billion U, among which three whale addresses sold off SOL worth 80 million U and ADA worth 60 million U at once, with sell orders concentrated at high levels.
At the same time, ETH whale addresses have had a net inflow of 530 million U, with two whales that previously held a large amount of altcoins immediately transferring 200 million U to ETH wallets after selling off, even starting to build positions in small batches in the 4700-4720 dollar range.
This is not a coincidence—whales understand 'rotation logic' better than retail investors: now that altcoins have risen, valuations are relatively high, while ETH still has room to rise from its previous highs. Additionally, there are benefits such as ETFs and upgrades coming up, so switching profits from altcoins to ETH can both hedge risks and seek bigger trends. Just like before the 2021 bull market, whales first sold off altcoins, then heavily invested in ETH, ultimately making ETH rise from 1800 dollars to 4800 dollars, gaining 167%.
2. Whales are 'stocking up' on ETH at key levels, with 4700 dollars being a buying zone.
Interestingly, the whales' buying strategy is to not chase high above 4750 dollars, but to specifically buy in the 4700-4720 dollar range.
On-chain data shows that in the 4700-4720 dollar range, whale addresses have accumulated 320 million U of ETH in the last 24 hours, with an average cost of 4712 dollars, which is lower than the current price of 4725 dollars.
These whales aren't rushing to pump prices; instead, they are placing sell orders near 4750 dollars to depress prices, aiming to 'absorb more low-priced chips,' and will pump after they have enough.
Before ETH surged from 1200 dollars to 1800 dollars in 2023, whales did the same: accumulating 2 billion U in the 1300-1400 dollar range before starting to rise. The current situation is very similar; whales are quietly stocking up, just not telling retail investors.
3. Altcoins 'drop with volume increase,' while ETH 'is stable with reduced volume,' showing clear fund rotation.
Another detail: Most altcoins sold off by whales are in a 'volume drop'—when SOL drops 3.86%, trading volume increases by 20%, and when ADA drops 4.5%, trading volume increases by 25%, indicating significant selling pressure; while ETH is 'stable with reduced volume,' showing funds are moving from altcoins to ETH, not an overall exit from the crypto market.
This kind of 'altcoins drop, ETH stable' rotation is a common phenomenon in the early stages of a bull market—funds first flow out of overvalued altcoins to safer, higher-potential mainstream coins. Once the mainstream coins rise, profits flow back into altcoins. We are currently in the phase of 'funds flowing from altcoins to ETH', and ETH's fluctuations are just 'temporary waves during position switching,' not the end of the rising trend.
Three, the two most common pitfalls: panic selling due to fluctuations and chasing high altcoins, don't fall for it!
In the current situation where ETH is fluctuating and whales are switching positions, beginners are most likely to make two mistakes: either miss out on the ETH market or get stuck in altcoins.
1. Pitfall 1: Being scared by ETH's fluctuations, selling at 4700 dollars, resulting in missing out.
Some people watch ETH go up and down and panic, selling at 4700 dollars, thinking 'I'll buy when it drops to 4600 dollars,' only to see ETH rise back to 4730 dollars and never drop below 4700 dollars again, missing the opportunity. For example, today a fan sold 10 ETH at 4702 dollars and is now down 2300 U, regretting it immensely.
Remember: ETH's fluctuations are 'washing out,' not a 'downtrend.' As long as the support at 4680 dollars hasn't broken, don't sell in panic; otherwise, you'll let whales pick up cheap shares, and when ETH surges to 4800 dollars, you'll only be able to regret it.
2. Pitfall 2: Whales sell off altcoins, while retail investors are still chasing high, resulting in getting stuck.
Some people see altcoins dropping and think they are 'cheap,' rushing to chase SOL and ADA at high levels, only to find they keep dropping after they buy, getting stuck at high prices. For example, today a fan bought SOL at 198 dollars, and it dropped to 195 dollars, resulting in a loss of 3 dollars per coin. If he had switched his funds to ETH, he could still make a small profit now.
Whales selling off altcoins is for a reason—currently, altcoins are overvalued, with good news already priced in, while ETH has benefits such as ETFs and upgrades, so funds are definitely running to ETH. Don't go against the direction of funds, or you will be buried in altcoins.
Four, what should you do now? Follow the whales' rhythm; the two types of people have different strategies.
Facing ETH's 'sham-like fluctuation' and the whales' 'switching actions,' the best strategy is to 'follow the whales,' don't act recklessly.
1. For those holding ETH: Don't panic, hold on, watch the 4700-4800 dollar range.
If you already hold ETH, don't let fluctuations affect you; focus on these two points:
Set stop-loss at 4680 dollars: this is the key support level; if it breaks, then reduce positions; if it doesn't break, just hold on.
Take profits in two steps: First look at 4800 dollars, reduce 30% of your position when it reaches there; then look at 4900 dollars, reduce another 30% when it gets there, keep the remaining 40% to watch 5000 dollars.
Don't stare at the charts every day: Set your stop-loss and take-profit, focus on what you need to do. Just watching the minute-by-minute chart will only make you panic and make wrong decisions.
2. For those holding altcoins: Take the opportunity to switch positions, don't hesitate.
If you hold SOL, ADA, and other altcoins, and have unrealized gains, hurry to switch to ETH during the rebound.
Timing to switch positions: Sell altcoins when they rebound to recent highs (for example, SOL rebounds to 200 dollars, ADA rebounds to 1.2 dollars), then buy ETH when it retraces to 4700-4720 dollars.
Don't be greedy: Altcoins can earn as much as possible, don't wait for 'a little more rise.' Whales are selling; if you wait, you'll only get stuck.
Position allocation: After switching, at least 50% of positions should be in ETH, and the remaining 50% should be kept in cash, don't buy everything.
3. For those out of positions: Buy ETH in the 4700-4720 dollar range, don't chase altcoins.
If you are out of positions, don't touch the altcoins being sold off by whales, directly enter ETH in the 4700-4720 dollar range.
Position entry: 30%-50%, don't go all in, leave some cash for emergencies.
Set stop-loss at 4680 dollars, take profit at 4800-4900 dollars.
Don't wait to catch the bottom: ETH is unlikely to drop below 4600 dollars. Don't think about 'buying the lowest.' Being able to buy near 4700 dollars is already a good deal.
The 'sham-like fluctuation' of ETH is the 'final washout' before the rise.
ETH's current fluctuations look like altcoins, not 'failing,' but rather 'the last washout before the rise'—whales are selling off altcoins to switch to ETH, and the main force is washing out the indecisive retail investors. Once this operation ends, ETH will likely break through 4800 dollars, or even rush to 4900-5000 dollars.
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