The new round of Ethereum's surge 📈 has just begun! How high can this round go? Today, I will share Xin Ge's core logic with everyone.
First, we need to see the essence of this bull market — it is clearly an institution-driven bull market, not a past frenzy of retail investors. Here, I must mention an American company: MicroStrategy. Their operations over the past few years have been textbook examples of how institutions play in the cryptocurrency market.
What MicroStrategy is doing is actually very pure: they almost don't engage in other businesses, focusing solely on 'financing to buy Bitcoin.' For example, in 2023, they raised over a billion dollars through issuing convertible bonds, and within days converted it all to Bitcoin; by 2024, leveraging the surge in Bitcoin, they issued more stock to refinance and continued to increase their Bitcoin holdings. More importantly, this formed a perfect 'positive cycle': as Bitcoin prices rise, the market value of the digital assets held by MicroStrategy also increases, and the company's stock price follows suit (from the low point in 2022 to the high point in 2024, the stock price increased nearly 20 times); as the stock price rises, it attracts more investors to buy their stock, and at the same time, the Bitcoin they hold can be pledged to institutions for low-interest loans to buy more Bitcoin — essentially using other people's money to grow their own asset snowball, while allowing the 'digital asset income' on the company's financial statements to far exceed traditional business profits.
This 'lying down to make money' model quickly caught the attention of other institutions. Some institutions directly copied this logic, only changing the target from Bitcoin to Ethereum — they also financed by issuing funds and connecting with institutional client funds, then making large and continuous purchases of Ethereum. This is also why Ethereum has hardly given much room for pullbacks this round: from around $2100 at the end of last year, it steadily rose to over $4000, more than doubling in less than half a year. Even if there were pullbacks along the way, they did not exceed 10%. Many retail investors hoping to wait for a 'deep dip to enter' simply had no opportunity.
The key now is: have institutional buying actions stopped? From recent data, it is clear that they have not. For example, Grayscale's Ethereum Trust Fund (ETHE) has seen a continuous increase in capital inflows over the past month, with daily new positions sometimes reaching thousands; also, some traditional financial institutions have launched Ethereum ETF products, with subscription volumes steadily rising — this indicates that institutions are still actively 'accumulating', and this institution-led 'coin hoarding game' is far from over.
So the logic behind this round of Ethereum's rise is very clear: how high it goes depends entirely on when institutions stop buying and start selling.
From a long-term perspective, looking at Ethereum's past bull market performance — in each major bull market, Ethereum's increase can reach at least 10 times (for example, from over $100 in 2020-2021 to $4891, nearly 50 times; from $10 in 2017 to $1400, 140 times). If we calculate based on the starting point of this bull market (the low in 2022 of $881), a 10-fold increase would be $8810. Considering the continuous influx of institutional funds and upgrades to the Ethereum ecosystem (such as Layer 2 expansion after the Cancun upgrade), the long-term target price for this round will likely fall within the $8000-$15000 range — this range is not a guess, but a comprehensive judgment based on historical increases, the scale of institutional funds, and the potential for ecosystem development.
From a short-term perspective, based on daily trend analysis, Ethereum has not yet shown a clear 'top signal' (such as volume stagnation, MACD divergence, etc.). Combined with the rhythm of past institution-led markets, there will likely still be a 5-8 day upward cycle before reaching the top, with corresponding target positions around $5200-$5300. This position is both a psychological resistance level from the previous market and the upper pressure zone of the daily Bollinger Bands. At that time, we need to pay close attention to whether the trading volume can keep up — if it breaks through with increased volume, we can look even higher; if it stagnates with reduced volume, a short-term pullback may be on the horizon.
I've mentioned before that Ethereum's pullback can be bought in the $4060-$4150 range. From the feedback from many fans, most successfully entered this range, and now they already have considerable floating profits. This also confirms that the strategy of 'following institutional rhythms and buying on pullbacks' is feasible.
Follow Xin Ge, I will break down the details in the next content: During the next Ethereum pullback, which positions are safe entry points, how much position to take, and where to set the stop-loss — after all, in a bull market, knowing how to buy makes you a student, while knowing how to catch pullbacks and control risks makes you a master.
Finally, let me be honest with everyone: the simplest and easiest strategy in this bull market is really just 'follow the institutions, buy on pullbacks of Bitcoin and Ethereum.' Don't always think about 'buying low and selling high for swings,' and don't assume you're smarter than institutions, able to accurately time the top and bottom — institutions have tens of billions, even hundreds of billions in funds that can dominate the trend. As small retail investors, 'if you can't beat them, join them,' just sip some soup and you can steadily make money.
