In the past few days, I've been closely monitoring the market, and that gut feeling is getting stronger — the violent altcoin season is really about to arrive.
Don't think I'm just guessing; the altcoin season of broad gains has never come out of nowhere. The core reason is definitely large amounts of outside capital flooding in. Take my friends around me, who a while ago were pouring into ETH and second-tier institutions; they were among the early ones to sense it. These past few days, they've quietly started to gradually invest in altcoins. They privately mentioned to me that once ETH really takes off later, and the FOMO sentiment kicks in, those traditional second-tier funds will surely follow in. At that point, liquidity will undoubtedly flow towards altcoins — it's almost a certainty.
In fact, there are many quality assets in the crypto space that are cash cows. Take Hyperliquid and Pump for example, along with commonly used ones like Uniswap and Aave. Not to mention Ethena and Pendle, which are performing well; if they were placed in the US stock market, starting at a 5 to 10 times premium wouldn't be exaggerated. I think many of these types of assets will likely connect to the US stock market through crypto stocks this time around, in other words, capturing more liquidity there, and when that happens, the rise will likely be significant.
Calculating it, I've also experienced three cycles, and each time has been quite interesting — as soon as most people start saying, 'This time is different, only BTC has value,' the altcoin season quietly kicks off. The previous rounds were all like this; whenever BTC's market share rises back to around 70%, within half a year, the altcoin season can bring that number back down to 40%. And to be honest, at the previous bottom, the 'altcoin is useless' argument was much more fierce than it is now. The more harshly it was criticized back then, the crazier it surged later.
If you're also considering switching to altcoins, here's my advice: focus on three types: first, at least those that have gone through a cycle of wash trading and survived the bear market; second, businesses that are true cash cows and still steadily growing; it's not enough to just tell a story, they must really be able to make money; third, choose products that you can understand and use yourself; if you don't even know what they're doing, it won't feel secure holding them.
Is anyone still worried about BTC's market share? It's actually unnecessary. BTC's market share has risen for a full 4 years, and it just reversed two months ago, dropping from 65% to 58%. Moreover, a large part of that drop has been absorbed by ETH's rise — to put it simply, this wave of the altcoin season hasn't even truly begun yet. I dare to say that for this bull peak, I still see BTC.D at 40%.
Brothers, don't panic. Just like every previous round, when it's really time to escape the peak, I will definitely let you know first.
