📉 Core View:

  • Trump's crypto advisor whale Tim Pickett’s $680 million BTC position has incurred a loss of over $10 million, cost price around $118,000

  • Wyckoff Distribution Structure Confirmed, 4-hour chart shows 'Weak Rebound → Secondary Bottom Testing' pattern

  • Chande Theory Penetration Established, key support below at $109,000 (0.382 Fibonacci) & $103,000 (Previous Low Zone)

  • Operational Strategy: Short on Rebound, chase the fall on breakouts, strictly prohibit blind bottom fishing!

🔍【Wyckoff Perspective: Is the Whale Being Trapped a Distribution Signal?】

  1. UTAD Failure (Upthrust After Distribution)
    The August 22 peak of $121,700 could not hold, quickly falling back to $116,000, in line with Wyckoff's 'Fake Breakout True Distribution' characteristics
    → The main force offloads based on good news (Trump Concept), retail investors take over

  2. Volume Shrinking Rebound
    Recent rebound volume continues to decrease (see Chart 3 Binance 4-hour volume bars), typical 'No Demand Rebound'
    → High Probability of Downward Continuation

📍【Chande Theory Structure: 4-hour Level Penetration Confirmation】

  • Current Trend: Running down from the high of 125,000, the secondary level has seen 3 declines (see Chart 2 Liquidation Map)

  • Key Level:

    • Strong Support: 109,000 (0.382 Fibonacci + Overlapping Previous Low Area)

    • Breakout Target: 103,000 (0.618 Fibonacci + Weekly Previous Low)

  • Bull-Bear Watershed: 118,000 (Whale Cost Price, if rebound fails, bears dominate)

🎯【Operational Strategy: Bearish Pressure, Bottom Fishing Signals!】

  1. Short-term (4-hour):

    • Short at 117,000-118,000 area, stop loss at 120,000, target at 110,000

    • Chase short on break at 110,000, target at 105,000

  2. Medium-term (Daily):

    • If it stabilizes in the 103,000-105,000 area, you can gradually position long (needs to be combined with a volume increase bullish line)

  3. Whale Alert:

    • If BTC breaks below 109,000, it may trigger a chain reaction of stop-loss for Tim Pickett’s position → Accelerated Decline!

⚠️【Risk Warning】

  • The Federal Reserve's September meeting is approaching, and the high interest rate environment continues to suppress risk assets

  • Expectations for Trump's crypto policy have been partially priced in, good news exhausted means bad news