The analysis platform Alphractal released new charts and methodologies regarding X on August 21, stating that a series of emerging on-chain and market structure signals indicate that Dogecoin may be brewing a new rise. The company believes that the resilience of miners, the stable "network pressure index," and the arrangement of model-derived bands such as Alpha Price and CVDD have historically preceded the acceleration of Dogecoin's major trends.
Is Dogecoin at $1 starting to work its magic again?
Alphractal wrote: "Dogecoin miners continue to exhibit incredible resilience, and hash rate activity is moving towards historical highs." It then posed the core question of its latest research: "Can trading around the real market average price, as well as models like Alpha Price and CVDD, pave the way for Dogecoin to set new historical highs?"
The foundation of this meeting is a composite indicator that the company refers to as the "network pressure index." It integrates three dimensions of blockchain health and stress—"fee pressure (fees/market cap - 40% weight), hash pressure (30-day hash rate volatility - 30% weight), and supply pressure (7-day active supply volatility - 30% weight)."
As Alphractal summarized: "The higher the value, the more it indicates potential instability or significant changes. The lower the value, the more it reflects the balance of the network in economic, security, and activity levels." The company stated that under the current circumstances, this indicator "indicates network stability—no warning signals of network risk have been shown."
In addition to the original network conditions, Alphractal has overlaid two valuation and cycle tools, which are said to be very reliable for UTXO chains like Dogecoin, Bitcoin, and Litecoin. The company notes: "Our Alpha price model acts like a magnet that can influence market sentiment." The Alpha price model refers to the behavioral anchors that prices tend to follow over time.
It is combined with the adjusted cumulative value destruction days (CVDD), which is an indicator that tracks the age-weighted value of circulating tokens on-chain. "Our advanced CVDD adjustments have proven to be one of the most accurate tools for identifying tops and bottoms in UTXO blockchains like Dogecoin, BTC, and LTC," Alphractal wrote.
The current position of these models is central to the argument. The article notes: "Currently, the CVDD top is at $0.54, but as dormant Dogecoin fluctuates, it may rise further—potentially pushing the target price above $1." Its implication is clearly conditional: if the rebound attracts circulating supply that has been inactive for a long time, the top band will move upward, turning $0.54 from an upper limit into what Alphractal calls "merely a starting lower limit, with exuberant network activity driving further increases."
The company views the miners' situation as a support point. As hash rate activity "approaches historical highs," the security spending and miner participation place the network in a favorable position to "welcome a surge in global demand." This strength, combined with price trends clustering around what Alphractal calls the "real market average price," was depicted as a preparatory phase before Dogecoin's expansion in the network pressure, Alpha price, and CVDD charts on August 21.
Even so, this information is not entirely optimistic. The Alphractal article concludes with a risk warning regarding the current market microstructure of cryptocurrencies: "This opportunity may persist... however, as leverage in the cryptocurrency market continues to rise and the momentum of Dogecoin (DOGE) strengthens, traders must be wary of suddenly emerging traps and large-scale liquidations." In other words, while the model complex outlines a positive backdrop, the dynamics of positions and derivatives may inject severe downward shocks in the process.
In summary, Alphractal's research presents a simple and testable roadmap: a stable network, resilient miners, and prices that follow historically significant on-chain ranges create upward space together. The "highest price" of CVDD is currently at $0.54, and if dormant supply is awakened, it could mechanistically develop towards even "breaking $1." Whether Dogecoin can transform this pattern into a full breakout will depend on the interaction between natural spot demand and a leveraged market prone to sudden two-way squeezes.
As of the time of writing, the trading price for DOGE is $0.218.
