I have been in the crypto world for 7 years and traded full-time for 5 years. I was born in 1990, and I am 34 this year. I jumped into the crypto world at the peak of the 2017 bull market, pouring all of my parents' 800,000 yuan retirement savings into it, and maxing out three credit cards to cash out 300,000 yuan to chase highs. As a result, I lost everything, including principal and interest, during the Bitcoin crash from 20,000 to 3,000 dollars. During that time, my family was shrouded in gloom, my wife cried holding our child and wanted to return to her parents' house. I sat on the balcony of my rental apartment smoking all night, not feeling the pain of my fingers being burnt by cigarette butts, leaving several scars.
The turning point came during the darkest moments of the 2018 bear market. During the day I sorted packages at the delivery station, and at night I squatted in an 8-square-meter partitioned room reviewing trading records. I printed out all the liquidation orders and plastered them on the walls, staring at candlestick charts until 3 AM, my eyes bloodshot while I drew support levels. Slowly, I realized: in a 24-hour, sleepless crypto market, human greed and fear are amplified tenfold.
In the 2019 small bull market, I turned my 20000 yuan savings from delivering packages into 380000 in eight months. On March 12, 2020, when others were panicking and cutting losses, I went against the trend and added to my Ethereum position; three months later, my account exceeded 2 million. At the peak of last year's bull market, I quietly returned my father-in-law's retirement money and bought them an elevator apartment in the county. Now my wife often says: 'You’re more focused staring at the market software than when you were chasing me back then.'
What really changed my fate was that rainy night three years ago. I imported all my trading records into Excel, used Python to generate 237 sets of data, and summarized 12 survival rules:
Minimalist trading, focus on contracts
90% of the shitcoin projects in the crypto world do not last three months; don’t be blinded by 'hundredfold coins' anymore. I now only trade mainstream coin contracts, and leverage never exceeds 5 times. Just like when Bitcoin breaks above the MA20 on the weekly chart, I open a long position with 3% of my capital, set a stop loss at 8%, and a trailing stop loss at 15%. Remember: in the crypto world, less is more, slow is fast.
Emotional stop loss, refuse to hold losing positions
Last year, a newcomer asked me: 'Why hasn't my BTC long position exploded after holding from 60k to 30k?' I opened his trading records: the initial stop loss was set at 5%, and he manually canceled it the first time it was touched, then moved it down to 8%, and finally just turned off the stop loss altogether. This trading method can wipe you out in traditional markets and leave you heavily in debt in the crypto world. Remember: there’s no such thing as 'playing dead' in the contract market; the liquidation price is your lifeline.
Plan trades, trade plans
Now, before every trade, I write it out clearly in Notion:
Entry conditions: BTC daily line closes bullish and breaks EMA200
Position management: 2% of capital
Stop loss level: 2% below the previous low
Take profit strategy: Close in three batches (50% at a 1:2 risk-reward ratio, 30% at the previous high, 20% trailing stop loss)
Write it out and send it to the trading group for mutual supervision; if it’s not clear, absolutely do not open a position.
In-depth review, data speaks
I export trading records daily from TradingView and analyze them with Python:
Highest win rate trading periods (discovered that the win rate from 20:00 to 24:00 Beijing time is 17% higher than at midnight)
Most profitable leverage ratio (3-5 times risk-reward ratio is the most reasonable)
Common error types (68% of losses come from closing profitable positions too early)
Reviewing is not about looking at profit and loss amounts; it’s about finding the loopholes in the trading system.
Trend is king, respect the market
On May 19, 2021, I still had 230,000 dollars in my OKEx BTC perpetual contract account. When the price dropped below EMA120, the system automatically issued a closing signal. Although it was painful to watch my account change from a profit of 180,000 to a loss of 50,000, it was this strict execution that helped me avoid 80% of the subsequent crash. Remember: in the crypto world, the trend is your friend until the turning point appears.
Counterintuitive operations, profit holding
Last year, there was an interesting phenomenon: there was someone in my trading group who closed positions every time he made a 5% profit but held on through a 10% loss. By the end of the year, it turned out he had a win rate of 72% but ended up losing 43%. Now I’ve set a strict rule: profitable positions must be held until a reverse candlestick pattern appears, while losing positions must be immediately cut when the stop loss is hit. Just like Buffett said: 'Cut losses short, let profits run.'
Trading volume is the lifeline of contracts
When BTC breaks through a key resistance level, if the trading volume does not increase by more than 30% simultaneously, that breakout is 90% false. Last October, when BTC broke 60,000 dollars, I was watching the volume histogram on Coinbase and found it was 42% lower than the previous breakout; I immediately closed my long position and reversed to short, and three days later the price dropped back to 54,000.
Concentrated positions, precise strikes
Now, my contract account only holds 1-2 varieties at all times. Before the LUNA crash in 2022, I closed all my ETH long positions and switched entirely to shorting UST. When UST depegged, my account surged 137% in one day. Remember: in the crypto world, diversification is an excuse for the lazy, precise strikes are the way to go.
Timing patterns, grasp the rhythm
I discovered a 'magical moment' in the crypto world: every Thursday night from 20:00 to 22:00, BTC’s volatility is 23% higher than usual. Now, during this period, I set my conditional orders half an hour in advance; either I ride the volatility or stop loss and exit, never hesitating.
Moving average system, simple and effective
My trading screen is always on three moving averages:
EMA50 (red): Short-term trend line
EMA120 (blue): Medium-term lifeline
EMA200 (green): Bull-bear dividing line
When the price stands above EMA200, only go long; when it drops below, immediately reverse. This simple system has allowed me to maintain a 47% positive return in the 2023 bear market.
Leading strategy, only trade the big ones
Now, for contract trading, I only choose BTC and ETH. Last year a new coin skyrocketed tenfold in three days, and someone in the group asked if I wanted to chase it. I pulled up historical data: out of 287 new coins in the past three years, 92% went to zero within three months. Remember: in the crypto world, chasing highs and cutting losses is a game for the poor; embracing the leading coins is the choice of the rich.
Position pyramid, with evidence for entry and exit
My averaging-up strategy is like the Egyptian pyramid:
Base position: 30% of capital
First averaging up: add 20% when the price retraces by 5%
Second averaging up: add 10% when breaking the previous high
This way, even if the market reverses, the overall loss is kept within a bearable range. Last March, on the night Silicon Valley Bank collapsed, I used this strategy to build a position at 21,500 dollars in BTC and eventually closed all at 28,500 dollars.
Now, whenever someone asks me: 'How can I make money in the crypto world?' I always think back to 2018 when I was sorting packages at the delivery station. This market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks is the ability to maintain a rational mind after consecutive losses. Remember: in the crypto world, lasting longer is more important than making money quickly. When you turn your trading system into muscle memory, when stop loss becomes a reflex, and when reviewing becomes a habit, wealth will naturally come knocking.
There are many souls lost on the road of crypto; I can only ferry those with fate @大师兄说币
