Price: ~$4150–4160 on the 15m chart
Trend Check: Steeply downsloping MA overhead
Momentum: RSI ~57, rising off the lows
We just bounced off the 4109–4125 demand pocket and are now pressing into the MA / prior resistance zone.
🔎 Technical Breakdown
1. Trend & MA Bias
The 15m moving average is sloping down → short-term trend still bearish.
Unless price reclaims & holds above it (multiple 15m closes), every rally is just supply retested.
2. Market Structure Shift (early signs)
After the selloff, price stopped printing lower lows.
We’ve got higher lows into the 4150s → first attempt at turning distribution → accumulation.
Confirmation only if we break & sustain above 4168–4175 (neckline zone).
3. Key Levels
Support: 4109–4125 (buyers have defended here multiple times).
Resistance: 4168–4175 (MA + neckline), then 4200–4215 (prior breakdown shelf).
Below: Lose 4109 → 4065 daily order block is back in play.
4. RSI Read
RSI climbing from sub-50 to ~57 = momentum recovery, but not breakout.
Mild bullish divergence likely on the lows → justifies the bounce.
Needs level validation, not just RSI slope.
5. Candle Behavior
Long lower wicks @ 4110s = buyers stepping in.
Upper wicks into 4170s / MA = sellers fading rallies.
Classic “breaker retest” action: bounce → tag supply → decision point.
6. Pattern Scenarios
Bear Flag Play: Rejection under 4170s → roll back to 4125 → 4109 → 4065.
Inverse H&S Play: Break + hold above 4170s/MA → squeeze into 4200–4215.
🧠 Market Psychology
Post-dump fear invites late shorts at bottoms.
Quick bounce tempts FOMO longs into resistance.
Smart money hunts liquidity at these emotional pivot zones.
Retail bias: “support reclaimed!” Reality: confirmation > green candles.
🎯 Playbook
Bullish Plan:
Wait for 15m closes above 4168–4175 + sustained hold over MA.
Then look for pullback buys → 4200–4215 target.
Invalidation = back under 4150 with fading momentum.
Bearish Plan:
Watch for rejection at 4170s/MA.
Break below 4125 opens door to 4109 → 4065.
Lose 4065 with momentum → daily path toward 4000/3800 stays alive.
Discipline Rule: Don’t chase. Trade reactions at levels, not narratives.
✅ Bottom Line
This is a decision zone, not a breakout.
Win = reclaim 4170s with strength → upside squeeze.
Lose = slip below 4125 → grind to 4065 resumes.
Patience > FOMO. Let the chart confirm, then execute.
🔥 Patience pays. Chasing bleeds.
$ETH
