The decline in this cycle is still dominated by macro sentiment. In the first half of August, the probability of an interest rate cut in September was as high as 90%. In the second half of the month, starting this week, it began to decline, currently at 86%. Additionally, Bitcoin and Ethereum's ETF data has been continuously flowing out since Monday, and it has been three consecutive days, indicating that institutional sentiment is also fluctuating with the probability of the September interest rate cut. Furthermore, Powell's speech this week is likely to have an increasing impact as the September interest rate cut date approaches.
Bitcoin
(BTC) remains above the key support level of $112,000, which means the market has not completely turned bearish. As long as this level holds, there are two possibilities for the market: it can continue to oscillate for a long time or rebound again.
But be aware that a typical new high bearish divergence structure has appeared at the daily level—this is a bearish signal, indicating that bullish momentum is weakening.
So, in summary: 112,000 is the lifeline of BTC and also the watershed of your trading strategy.
BTC Trend and Trading Suggestions
If it holds above 112,000: Continue holding spot positions, or buy in batches/make long positions when approaching support levels.
Once it breaks down on volume: Don't fantasize, don't hold the position, exit in time! After breaking down, a pullback is likely to continue.
Important Reminder: Before breaking down, it is not recommended to blindly short. The market fears emotional trading the most.
ETH: Has the correction ended?
Ethereum (ETH) touched a low of $4060 today, and the price tested this area repeatedly during the day, indicating that there is capital defending this position.
ETH's trading volume significantly increased when it broke through the 3940-4090 range, indicating that a large amount of capital was exchanged in this area, forming a new support zone. It is very difficult to break through this level all at once.
So, whether ETH's correction has ended depends on two signals:
Can it oscillate and stop the decline near 4090;
Will BTC hold above 112,000? If BTC breaks down, ETH will likely be dragged down for a second test.
Remember these points in trading:
Want to buy the dip? You can, but you must build your position in batches. Absolutely do not go all in at once.
Pay attention to the performance of BTC at 112,000 and ETH at 4090.
If BTC can stabilize, Ethereum's new high is not a big issue.
Altcoins
In the altcoin sector, quality leaders can be accumulated on dips. The logic hasn’t changed; only quality top altcoins will follow the market up. Currently, the rest are garbage, and there will be no more 'altcoin seasons' in the future. The so-called applications in the crypto space are considered 'playthings' in the eyes of traditional capital. They only need to wrap the blockchain shell to take away the project team's livelihood, and Circle is the best example.
PEPE: In this wave of sharp decline, PEPE has not followed the drop much, and since it didn't rise much earlier, its decline has significantly reduced. This indicates that selling momentum is weakening and there is buying support. Currently, PEPE has two strong support levels at 830 and 760, meaning its downside potential is at most 30%.
Historically, PEPE's price has never fallen below the lower Bollinger Band weekly support. The weekly lower band is currently rising at about 60 per week, leaving little space and time for PEPE to fall further. In the long run, it will only be a couple of weeks. Waiting quietly for the opportunity to greedily add positions.
LTC: Litecoin has a small market cap and ETF expectations. LTC is also heavily held by Grayscale, making it a good trading target. You can consider buying around 105!
DOGE: 0.21-0.20 is an important support zone for Dogecoin. You can buy Dogecoin near 0.20. Dogecoin has not missed any wave of the market and has performed quite well in each wave. You can buy some Dogecoin and wait for it to rise!
Overall, the core of this round of decline is still dominated by macro sentiment. With fluctuations in interest rate cut probabilities, continuous outflow of ETF funds, and the approaching Powell speech, market uncertainty has intensified. BTC's 112,000 and ETH's 4,090 are the lifelines of the current market; holding these levels may stabilize the decline, while breaking below will require decisive risk aversion.
In the altcoin sector, funds will still only favor top projects. PEPE, LTC, and DOGE all have phase opportunities, but position control is necessary, and layout should be done in batches, avoiding blind all-in strategies. The next two weeks will be a critical window for the market to choose its direction. Staying calm and avoiding emotional trading is the true way to survive in the crypto space.
