Today's ETH market is like a carefully designed psychological battle, with the main force repeatedly testing the critical position of 4190. It has failed to break below this level three times, clearly establishing a defensive line here. The MACD indicator played a trick with a 'false golden cross', as soon as the yellow and white lines climbed above the 0 axis, they quickly plunged, which is a typical trap to lure longs. Even more dangerously, the trading volume shrank to only 27,000 ETH, a level of volume often heralding a major market change is imminent.

In the early hours today, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from the July meeting, showing that most officials believe inflation risks remain high, which brings uncertainty to the market. Meanwhile, there have been continuous positive news for the Ethereum ecosystem recently:

Layer2 network Arbitrum's daily transaction volume exceeds 2 million

The Ethereum Foundation has announced a new round of developer funding program starting in September

These fundamental factors have created a tug-of-war pattern around 4200 for ETH.

The critical battle for 4190

This position is not only the middle track of the Bollinger Bands but also a turning point multiple times since August. The main force's intention to protect the market here is obvious, but be cautious:

After three tests without breaking, the probability of a breakout on the fourth attempt will greatly increase

If it breaks below 4160 (Bollinger lower band), it may trigger panic selling

MACD's 'wolf is coming' signal

Today's false golden cross is particularly worth noting:

At 8 AM, when the DIF crosses above the DEA, many retail investors follow suit to go long

As a result, there was a rapid decline an hour later, causing a batch of leveraged long positions to get liquidated

(A similar situation occurred on August 12, when ETH plummeted from 4300 to 4050)

Dangerous volume contraction

Current trading volume is only 15% of the daily average, such extreme shrinking often means:

The main force is ready to go

The direction of the market change may be very violent

Scenario one: False breakout at 4244

Probability 70%, need to be cautious

If the breakout occurs with a trading volume of less than 35,000 ETH, it is likely a trap to lure longs

Best strategy: Observe for 30 minutes after the breakout, confirm the volume before deciding

Scenario two: Break below 4160

The next target is directly at 4050

This position has strong support (multiple rebounds here in August)

A breakdown may trigger a chain liquidation

Scenario three: Range trading at 4190 waiting for guidance

Waiting for the US stock market to open tonight (Beijing time 21:30)

If the Nasdaq strengthens, it may drive ETH to break through

If the US stock market falls, ETH may follow suit

Spot players: Must reduce positions if breaking below 4160, protecting profits is the most important

Contract players: If breaking 4244, can try a small long position, but set the stop loss at 4220

Conservative approach: Place a buy limit order at 4050 (the rebound of 300 points occurred at this position on August 16)

Remember: The most dangerous time in the market is often the moment of the greatest opportunity!

Remember to follow Block Key, closely track top analysts' perspectives, and capture wealth signals at the first moment! #杰克逊霍尔会议