On August 18, 2025, Trump and Zelensky reached a consensus at the White House, with the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire no longer a prerequisite for peace talks. A trilateral meeting between the US, Russia, and Ukraine is on the agenda, supported by seven European countries. Putin verbally accepted the security guarantee framework for Ukraine, potentially bringing a three-year war or an unexpected end.
One, the ceasefire may become a catalyst for Bitcoin's surge.
The Nagorno-Karabakh war ended in 2020: Bitcoin surged from \(12,000 to\) 23,000 in 30 days, nearly a 100% increase.
In 2023, a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Palestine: Conflict funds rapidly withdraw, with BTC premiums in Egypt dropping by 6.1%.
In January 2025, a ceasefire in the Middle East: Bitcoin breaks through $100,000. This Russia-Ukraine ceasefire is on a larger scale, with considerable room for growth.
Two, the dual benefits of ending the war.
In terms of liquidity: Geopolitical risks are receding, with a 71% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, potentially leading to a trillion-dollar influx into risk assets.
In terms of regulation: Trump's team advances the payment stablecoin bill, with the SEC being led by a cryptocurrency lawyer; compliance will ignite institutional sentiment.
Three, the US-China stablecoin game begins.
United States: Allows Amazon and Goldman Sachs to issue private stablecoins, reconstructing the global payment network.
China: JD.com and Ant Group receive stablecoin pilot projects, building a digital RMB corridor through the Belt and Road Initiative. The scale of stablecoin cross-border payments is expected to exceed $5 trillion, with protocol-layer projects like SOL and ADA likely to experience a surge.
