Traders of the event prediction service Kalshi believe that the Gemini model from #Google will become the leading artificial intelligence system for working with text by the end of 2025. 57% of users are betting on this model — the figure has risen from 48.1% in just a few days.
Gemini's positions are strengthening against the backdrop of competitors' problems. #ChatGPT from OpenAI lost support — from 25.4% to 20%, while the Grok model from xAI fell from 18.8% to 15%. The total betting volume in this prediction market reached $7.4 million.
Google is ramping up its efforts
On August 15, Google announced a series of updates for Gemini. Among the innovations are a story creation mode, an improved reasoning model, and temporary chats that are not saved in user history.
OpenAI is going through tough times. The release of ChatGPT-5 was met with criticism from users, and CEO Sam Altman had to defend the product on social media X.
The Grok model from xAI is also facing problems. Users accuse the system of political bias — some call it right-wing, others left-wing. The company even had to delete some of Grok's posts after the model allegedly praised Adolf Hitler.
The fight for leadership in the AI field
The race for the title of the best language model is gaining momentum. Companies are competing in various areas, including internet search — a source of information for many #AI systems.
Last week, the company Perplexity proposed to buy the Chrome browser from Google for $34.5 billion in cash. Chrome holds a large share of the browser market. Reports suggest that OpenAI is also interested in acquiring the browser.
The Chinese company DeepSeek is gaining market share. In April, it released a new model, Prover 2, which shows advanced results in mathematics.
The development of AI may be slowed down by antitrust actions. In October 2024, the antitrust authorities of the Group of Seven (G7) countries pointed to the possibility of measures to protect competition in the field of artificial intelligence. Google and Meta*, players in the AI industry, are already facing lawsuits — Google from a U.S. district court, Meta from the Federal Trade Commission.
The outcome of the prediction on Kalshi will be determined on December 31 based on data from the LM Arena Leaderboard — an open platform for accessing the leading AI models in the world. Winners will receive their shares from the total betting pool.
