ETH is currently at a critical level of 4300, and the market situation is unclear. Last night, the US SEC unexpectedly postponed its decision on the Ethereum ETF, causing the market to fluctuate wildly, with prices dropping to 4279. However, surprisingly, within just one hour, the price quickly rebounded back to around 4300. This sharp drop and rise clearly indicate a psychological battle among market players. For experienced investors, they know that such market behavior often hides two possibilities: one is that the main force is washing out leverage, and the other is that news traders are suffering a backlash.
From a technical perspective, there are three key signals worth noting. First, the Bollinger Bands are showing a clear contraction, resembling a 'crocodile's mouth', with the upper band at 4381 and the lower band at 4246, tightly squeezing the ETH price in the middle, indicating that the market is about to choose a direction. Second, the MACD green bars have shrunk to a thin line, showing that the forces of bulls and bears are at a stalemate. Lastly, the VR indicator is at 74.78, in a typical 'dead market' state, suggesting that market trading has temporarily fallen into a lull, which often precedes a calm before the storm.
4306 has become the critical dividing line contested by both bulls and bears. From the chart, the red resistance line I marked represents this important boundary. If ETH can successfully stay above 4306, it is very likely to surge towards 4380; conversely, if it falls below 4250, it may drop directly to 4200. Last night, the entire network saw up to 230 million dollars in ETH long positions liquidated. Surprisingly, the contract open interest on exchanges not only did not decrease but actually increased, which undoubtedly indicates that large funds are quietly ambushing, preparing to make substantial profits during the market's turning point.
On the news front, the potential 'bomb' has not fully detonated yet. Tonight at 20:30, the Federal Reserve will release the meeting minutes. If the minutes hint at a rate hike in September, ETH prices are likely to suffer another heavy blow. However, the market is not completely shrouded in gloom; Vitalik Buterin has just tweeted, hinting at 'breakthrough progress in Layer3', and this positive news could become the catalyst for a rebound in ETH.
For experienced traders, operational strategies can be divided into aggressive and conservative approaches. Aggressive traders may try to open a long position with light leverage around 4300, setting a stop-loss at 4280 and targeting 4380, aiming to capture short-term price rebound opportunities. Meanwhile, conservative traders suggest waiting for the market to clarify its direction, taking decisive action only after the price breaks above 4381 or falls below 4246, preferring to miss short-term fluctuations rather than make careless mistakes to ensure fund safety. It is particularly important for contract traders to note that the current 15-minute K-line TD sequence has appeared as '9', indicating that the market may experience a reverse spike in the short term, so caution is advised to manage risks well.
Finally, it is crucial to remember that August is traditionally the most unpredictable month in the crypto world. ETH's current state is like a tightly compressed spring, ready to explode at any moment. It could either surge strongly by 500 points, bringing substantial profits, or suffer a brutal drop of 300 points, leading to significant losses for investors. Therefore, in such a high-risk market environment, investors must strictly control their positions to within 30% to avoid excessive exposure to risk.
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