On August 6, 2023, Yu Ge $ETH Market Analysis
$ETH is currently in a downtrend, driven mainly by technical factors. The candlestick chart shows a bearish engulfing pattern, and the moving averages are arranged in a bearish manner, with prices below both short-term and long-term moving averages. Although momentum has weakened slightly, the downward trend remains unchanged, and it may test the key support level of 4150.
The external environment is quite neutral. The Fear & Greed Index shows stable sentiment, and macro indicators like the US Dollar Index and Treasury yields have not experienced significant fluctuations, with no major events recently. The news contains mixed signals, with institutions increasing their holdings in Bitcoin and the expansion of crypto payments being positive, but weak technicals and tightening regulations pose pressure. These factors offset each other, making it difficult to see a strong unilateral movement; however, it cannot change the downward trend dominated by technicals. The key focus will be whether the 4150 support holds.
There are two trading strategies. For a conservative short position, enter around 4360, set a stop loss at 4450, and target 4150. After all, this is a confirmed downtrend according to the moving averages, 4360 serves as a resistance level for the trend line, and a bearish engulfing pattern has formed, making it a lower-risk short position following the trend. If the price breaks above 4450 and stays there, this strategy will become invalid, and a reassessment will be necessary.
For a more aggressive approach, enter a short position in the 4300 range, set a stop loss at 4400, with the same target of 4150. The current downtrend is clear, with moving averages arranged bearishly. Although momentum has decreased, the trend is still in place. Taking advantage of a price rebound to the 4300-4360 range allows for a strategic entry to capture the continuation of the trend. If the price breaks 4400, it indicates that the rebound exceeds expectations, and a retreat to reassess will be necessary.
