《What Caused ETH's Plunge? Is the Bull Market Really Over?》
This morning, ETH suddenly plummeted, dropping to as low as $4278. The reasons for the crash mainly stem from the combined impact of two news pieces:
First, the 'Old Trump's remarks' were interpreted by the market as negative for the crypto market, triggering emotional selling among investors. However, the core of his remarks revolves around regulatory directions that the market has been discussing repeatedly, and is not new information; it merely amplified market panic due to the celebrity effect.
Second, the frequent news about 'a large amount of ETH about to be unstaked' has raised concerns among investors that whales will sell off significantly after unlocking their assets, leading to a follow-the-crowd sell-off. However, on-chain data shows that the ETH about to be unstaked is approximately 23,000 tokens, which only accounts for 0.03% of the current circulating supply, indicating that the scale is manageable. Historical experience shows that most whales tend to continue staking rather than selling, suggesting that the panic is more directed at retail investors.
These two factors combined led to a short-term drop of over 4% in ETH, but this plunge seems more like a washout driven by news rather than a substantial risk.
Therefore, Weng believes that ETH is still bullish. During this period, one can consider positioning for a rebound, with initial targets of 4400 and then looking at 4500 after breaking through.
