Recently, many well-known analysts and investment experts in the market have stated that the bull market is nearing its end. However, it is important to note that data often lags behind, especially the operations of large funds (whales), which do not complete at so-called 'pinnacles.' Their accumulation and distribution require a longer process.

Looking back at the last bull market, Bitcoin broke above $100,000 and consolidated at high levels for a full 3 months before gradually entering the distribution phase. If this round of market wants to peak, the main force also needs a longer high-level consolidation period. Therefore, the real risk window may be from September to October, rather than right now.

In August, patiently holding positions might be a better choice.

Potential gains: What if the market accelerates into a major upward wave again? At that time, emotions will be thoroughly ignited, and the space for escaping peaks will be larger.

Risk buffer: Even if the market no longer rises, high-level consolidation can give everyone ample time to exit.

In other words, holding positions is essentially holding opportunity costs. Do you think this is the top? But what if it really breaks through?

BTC Market Analysis

Combining the liquidation map, current long and short positions are mainly concentrated around $110,000 – $120,000. If the main force suppresses the price to around $112,000, it will complete the cleaning of the bulls. My personal plan is to try to buy around $112,000 or look for long opportunities.

ETH Analysis

  • Daily and 4H levels: The price has broken below the Vegas channel and upward structure, with consecutive bearish breaks primarily aimed at clearing leverage and washing floating positions. The current decline target has been mostly achieved, indicating that the bearish phase is nearing its end.

  • Short-term target: The first target looks towards $4200 (previously an important support level that has been touched multiple times).

  • Further risk: If the rebound is blocked and it tests lower levels again, it may challenge $3939.

  • Buying zone:

    • ETH $3950 – $4200: The previous resistance zone has turned into a support zone.

    • BTC $110,000 – $112,000: If it falls back to this range, it is a good bottom-fishing opportunity.

Trump buys the dip!

On the news front, former US President Trump has just bought $10 million in BTC and $10 million in ETH. While the public sells out of panic, Trump chooses to accumulate at lower prices. Panic exit or greedy entry? This is worth investors' deep thought.

Altcoin Observation

Overall logic: Bitcoin determines the market, Ethereum determines altcoins. If BTC and ETH drop simultaneously, the decline in altcoins will be even more severe. However, the current stage of adjustment is not a malicious crash; it resembles a 'conscience adjustment' that provides an entry opportunity for strong players and may also be a window for entry before interest rate cuts.

  • LINK: Although the daily line is down, it is still within the rising channel. It has only filled the previous gap, and it is expected to rebound first, targeting the $27 resistance level.

  • DOGE: The daily line pattern is close to engulfing; if it falls back to $0.2, it will be an important position for long-term positioning.

  • SOL: Attention to $178.7 / $175.2; if it retests, it can be positioned at lower levels, with a defensive position at $173.4.

  • OKB: Benefiting from the xLayer ecosystem, its current market value is only over $2 billion and is severely undervalued. Compared to high-risk MEME coins, OKB offers better cost-effectiveness and stability.

Macroeconomic environment: This week's turning point

This Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak at the Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, and the market generally expects him to give a clear signal for interest rate cuts. Historically, the last interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve was in early 2020, which directly opened the era of 'massive liquidity'; US stocks, Bitcoin, and commodities fully recovered until tightening policies were enacted in 2022.

It should be noted that:

  • Interest rate cuts and hikes are just means; the key is whether to expand or contract the balance sheet.

  • Buy expectations, sell facts: Many times, the market has already completed most of the movements before the interest rate cut is implemented.

Therefore, Friday's speech is likely to become an important turning point in the market.

Conclusion

Although the current market has shown high-level fluctuations and technical corrections, based on historical experience, the bull market has not truly come to an end.

  • August: Focus on patiently holding positions while waiting for clearer signals.

  • September – October: May enter a risk window.

  • Altcoins: Adjustments are not a bad thing; instead, they provide an opportunity for positioning.

  • Macroeconomic aspect: Need to closely monitor the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm.

When most people are in panic, real large capital often chooses to quietly accumulate. Rather than being disturbed by short-term fluctuations, it is better to calmly wait and patiently seize the last 'tail' opportunity.