1. Technical aspect: Bears are dominant, but the decline is slowing.
Price is on the edge of a cliff: ETH's current price is $4274, having fallen below key support at 4300, which could trigger panic selling.
Death cross of moving averages: The 5-day line (white) crosses below the 20-day line (yellow), a typical short-term bearish signal indicating that market sentiment is leaning negative.
Volume shrinkage: Trading volume is 1.12 million, below the 5-day average (1.13 million), indicating a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, with neither sellers nor bottom-fishers.
Subtle changes in MACD: Although still negative (with bears dominating), the green bars are shortening, indicating that the downward momentum is weakening, and there may be a rebound in the short term.
2. Keep a close eye on key levels.
Upper resistance: 4400 (20-day moving average resistance), a breakthrough is needed to confirm a short-term rebound.
Lower safety zone: 4150 (previous low platform), if it retraces without breaking this level, a double bottom rebound may form.
[Impact of news]
1. Hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve suppress the market.
Early this morning, a Federal Reserve official made hawkish remarks again, suggesting that 'interest rate cuts may be delayed,' leading BTC to take the lead in a plunge, with ETH following suit.
Impact: Market liquidity is tightening, risk aversion sentiment is rising, and altcoins are generally under pressure.
2. Delay in ETH spot ETF approval, capital remains cautious.
The SEC has not yet clarified a timetable for the approval of ETH spot ETFs, leading some institutional funds to choose to wait and see.
Impact: Lack of large capital entering the market, making it difficult for ETH to have independent trends in the short term; it continues to follow BTC fluctuations.
3. Gas fees drop to 15 gwei, on-chain activity cools down.
A decrease in gas fees indicates a reduction in on-chain transactions, and a decline in the activity of ecosystems such as DeFi and NFTs, with a lack of speculative hotspots in the short term.
Impact: ETH lacks fundamental support, relying purely on capital and emotional drives, making it susceptible to the overall market.
[Personal views & practical strategies]
1. The main force may 'false breakdown' to wash out positions.
Where are the bottom-fishing opportunities?
Situation ①: Volume breakout above 4400 → Indicates short sellers are retreating, suitable for light entry.
Situation ②: Rapid drop to around 4150 → Prior low support, suitable for building positions in batches (but don't go all in).
3. Case reference: ETH's false breakdown in May.
In mid-May, ETH also briefly fell below key support, but quickly recovered and then rebounded by 10%. Will history repeat itself this time? The key depends on market sentiment.
[Ending hook]
"The market will not always fall, nor will it always rise. The key is whether you can be greedy when others are fearful?"
If you want to bottom-fish: patiently wait around 4150, or take action after a volume breakout above 4400.
If you are waiting: Now is not the time to go all in, save your bullets, and wait for the market to give a clear signal!
Remember: Make money in a bull market, earn coins in a bear market, and gain experience in a volatile market.
