I. Israeli Political Shock: A Protest Triggering Market Nerves
On August 18, a million-person protest erupted in Israel, opposing the government's complete takeover plan for Gaza, with arson incidents even occurring on the streets of Tel Aviv. This protest not only exposed the polarization of Israeli domestic politics but also acted as a fuse, igniting the global market's sensitivity to the Middle East situation—it's worth noting that during the June 2025 Israeli airstrikes on Iran, Bitcoin plummeted 12% in a single day due to escalating conflicts, with over $1.2 billion liquidated across the network.
II. The 'Dangerous Resonance' of Geopolitics and the Crypto Market
The 'Safe Haven Paradox' of the 2023 Gaza War
During the Hamas attack on Israel in October 2023, Bitcoin experienced its largest drop of 15% within three days, but subsequently, rumors of 'crypto crowdfunding supporting Hamas' and regulatory pressures led to a 440% weekly increase in USDT transfer volumes. This conflict proves that when the traditional financial system is restricted, stablecoins may become the bloodstream of the 'underground economy,' yet Bitcoin's 'safe haven narrative' repeatedly fails in real wars.
III. Survival Rules of Crypto Amid Political Turmoil
Leverage Betting: The Deadly Cycle of Liquidations
During the June 2025 conflict, Binance saw a daily liquidation amount of $720 million, with 80% of accounts using over 5x leverage. Programmatic trading triggered a 'death spiral' when prices fell below key levels, and the crypto market has become a 'financial amplifier.'
Regulatory Undercurrents: Geopolitical Conflicts Accelerate Policy Shifts
The U.S. (GENIUS Stablecoin Act) mandates 100% reserves in dollar-equivalent assets, leading USDT's premium rate to fall to -2% during the conflict. Geopolitical crises are forcing regulatory upgrades, and the compliance costs of stablecoins will become a new variable in the market.
Institutional Attitude: From 'Safe Haven' to 'Speculation'
During the conflict in June 2025, BlackRock saw a net inflow of $420 million into Bitcoin ETFs in a single day, but during the same period, MIT research indicated that Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 exceeds 0.8 during crises, with institutions viewing it as a 'multiplier of risk assets.'
Key Price Alert (Practical Information)
BTC: Hold above $117,800 (4-hour rebound line), with resistance at $121,300. ETH: $4,428 is the battleground for bulls and bears, a breakthrough tests $4,600. SOL: $190 is the short-term death line; falling below may trigger a chain of stop-losses.
As the protests in Tel Aviv illuminate the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, and as Bitcoin's 'safe haven myth' is repeatedly battered in geopolitical conflicts—do you think the crypto market will birth new survival rules in this game of politics and capital? Leave your predictions in the comments! #加密市场回调
