Today's movement of ETH made countless people sweat! The 1-hour candlestick chart shows that Ethereum is 'walking a tightrope' in the $4365-$4790 range, and an overnight plunge caused 120,000 people to be liquidated, wiping out $6 billion in capital! Is this market movement a bottom signal or a continuation of the decline? Let's dissect it with technical and news analysis!

1. Technical Analysis: Is $4365 a 'golden pit' or a 'bottomless hole'?

From the chart, ETH currently shows a typical bearish pattern:

  1. Key support level at $4365: This is the 'lifeline' that has seen multiple rebounds in the past three months; if it breaks, it may trigger panic selling;

  2. Resistance level at $4790: It was blocked here during last week's rebound, indicating that the main force has deployed heavy troops in this area;

  3. Trading volume mystery: When prices fall, the volume does not increase, indicating that the main force has not sold off massively; rather, it could be a 'trap for shorts'!

What is more concerning is that the NVT ratio of ETH has dropped to a historical low, indicating that the current price is severely undervalued! Remember the 2021 bull market when NVT hit bottom and ETH skyrocketed by 300%? Could this scenario repeat itself?

2. News: Negative news crashing the market VS positive news bubbling beneath, who is leading the trend?

Today the market was torn apart by two forces:
Negative News: Rumors of SpaceX selling Bitcoin.
SpaceX, owned by Musk, reportedly wrote down $373 million in Bitcoin and sold it, causing ETH to drop alongside. But note: the correlation between ETH and BTC is only 0.7, so Bitcoin's 'bloodbath' may not necessarily drag down Ethereum!

Positive News: Institutions are frantically buying the dip.

BlackRock's ETH trust holdings exceed 832,000, with a net inflow of $470 million in a single week;

SEC approves 3 ETH spot ETFs, attracting $830 million in the first week;

Vitalik has announced: Proto-danksharding upgrade is entering testing, with performance skyrocketing to 3000 transactions per second!

Negative News: Global risk aversion is rising.
The US has restarted '301 tariffs', with the EU retaliating, and bond yields have soared to a 15-year high, leading to a withdrawal of funds from risk assets. But strangely: the annualized destruction of ETH has reached 1.8% of the supply, and its deflationary nature is attracting long-term capital!

3. Personal Opinion: Where will ETH drop to? Is it possible to buy the dip now?

Short-term:
If it holds above $4365, it may rebound to the resistance level of $4790; if it breaks down, watch for support at $4200. However, the lack of increased trading volume and institutional accumulation may indicate a 'false drop washout'!

Medium to Long-term:
Proto-danksharding upgrade + ETF capital inflow + deflationary nature, these three positive factors may push ETH to break through $8000! Remember: in 2025, DeFi TVL will exceed $80 billion; for every additional $1 billion in TVL, there is an average daily demand of 23,000 ETH, which is higher than mining output!

4. Impact on the crypto market: The bull market is still on, but the game has changed!

  1. BTC and ETH are going their separate ways: BTC is more affected by macro factors, while ETH, due to technological upgrades and institutional endorsement, is gradually becoming a 'productive asset';

  2. Layer 2 ecosystem outbreak: Arbitrum's daily transaction volume exceeds 120 million, and the Optimism super chain attracts 200+ DApps, with funds shifting from 'speculating on coins' to 'using coins';

  3. Regulatory clarity: Hong Kong's MiCA regulations classify ETH as a 'technical asset', compliant stablecoins could attract $20 billion in institutional funds!

Are you ready to be the 'knife catcher' or the 'bystander'?

The question now is not 'Will it drop?', but 'Do you dare to buy the dip at $4365?' Will you believe in the future that institutions are voting with real money, or will you be scared off by short-term fluctuations?

I am @财月女神 , a top-tier layout team, only serving ambitious individuals with vision among the crazies! If you want to earn steadily through compound interest, I can help you make money in this market, so you don’t end up as a blind leek, at the mercy of the market's whims. But as I always say, you must first have the ability to execute; as the saying goes, a prodigal son does not return, even a deity would find it hard to save him.