1. Price structure
The circle of candles is a short-term uptrend channel (Ascending Channel).
Price gradually increases along the lower trendline, continuously creating BOS (Break of Structure) → confirms the uptrend in the short term. However, at the peak area of 122k–123k, a distribution wave appears → then the price breaks the uptrend line.
2.Reversal signal
After breaking the uptrend channel, ChoCH (Change of Character) → a sign of phase change from up → down.The recent strong red candle confirms overwhelming selling pressure → the possibility of testing lower support
3.AdX and DI (below chart)
-DI (red) > +DI (green) → the selling side is dominant.
ADX (orange) is rising > 20 → the downtrend is starting to take effect.4. Volume
In the uptrend phase, volume does not increase significantly → a sign of lack of sustainable strength
When the trendline is broken, selling volume increases significantly → confirms the real selling pressure.
5.Next scenario
Downtrend scenario (high probability):
Price has broken the uptrend channel → short-term target around 115,000 – 114,500 (support in the green zone).If it breaks below 114,000, it could fall deeper to 112,000 – 111,500 (Strong Low).
Technical rebound scenario (less than):
If it holds 115,800–116,000, it may test back to 118,000 – 119,000 before continuing to decline.📌 In summary:
The circle of candles is a short-term uptrend channel that has been broken, ADX confirms that the downward force is increasing, high probability BTC will continue to drop to 115k – 114k to test supply and demand.
