When even the car repair shop next door starts asking you 'Can Bitcoin still be chased?', it's time to ponder your retreat route while holding your wallet—this rough saying is backed by eight years of blood and tears from the cryptocurrency world, forming an iron rule for topping out.
When will this round of frenzy end? We might as well set the time machine back to 2013, the year when Bitcoin first broke $1,000, and clerks selling counterfeit phones in Huaqiangbei, Shenzhen were exchanging withdrawal strategies from the Mentougou exchange; then fast forward to 2017, when ICO white papers were cheaper than toilet paper, and news of South Korean students hoarding instant noodles to trade coins topped CNN headlines; and vividly remember 2021, when Tesla accepting Bitcoin payments kept all car dealers awake all night, and El Salvador's crazy move to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender even alarmed the IMF.
These crazy scenes are like a customized doomsday clock, always striking at the end of the cycle.
The three corpse spots dissecting the death of the bull market are clearly discernible: the first corpse spot is called 'Fiat Currency Entry Circuit Breaker.' When withdrawals from Coinbase queue for over 72 hours, Binance suspends USDT deposits, and exchanges are at a loss like banks facing a bank run, it means that a massive number of novices are converting their life savings into digital codes—such a frenzy often occurs two weeks before the peak.
The second corpse spot is called 'The Dealer's Ammunition Exhausted.' Keep an eye on the changes in Grayscale's GBTC holdings, and you'll understand: when this largest Bitcoin hoarder sells but does not buy for three consecutive months, and Coinbase's cold wallet outflow surges 300%, combined with a seven-week vertical rise on the BNB weekly chart (like the deadly rocket soaring from 340 to 690 in April 2021), it is solid evidence that the big whales are distributing their chips at inflated prices.
The third corpse spot is the most concealed yet the deadliest—'Liquidity Vampire Appears.' A suddenly popular 'stablecoin financial protocol' claiming a daily yield of 1%, or exchanges launching thousand-fold leveraged animal coin futures, these financial opiates will instantaneously drain the market's blood.
If we view the Bitcoin halving cycle as an agricultural calendar, we are in the most fertile 'Summer Solstice' period. The fourth halving scheduled for April 2024, according to historical patterns, will bear large fruits 14-18 months later.
Considering the Federal Reserve's possible rate cuts in the second half of 2025, along with BlackRock's daily ingestion of 3,000 BTC through its spot ETF, the most probable scenario is: Bitcoin will break $180,000 during the 2025 Christmas season, igniting a nationwide frenzy, and in February of the following year, riding the wave of 'Bitcoin ETF options listing,' it will violently surge past $220,000, when the (Wall Street Journal) front page declares a change of era with the headline (Digital Gold Conquers the World)—the real death knell will ring on a Friday in March 2026.
That day coincided with the US non-farm payroll data shocking the market, the Federal Reserve urgently hinted at resuming interest rate hikes, and amidst the bloody storm of BTC plummeting 30% in a single day, you would see a screen full of liquidation orders featuring party emojis that couldn't be removed in time.
Right now is the golden age for sowers. When on-chain data shows that the Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have fallen below 2.3 million (a five-year low), and BlackRock's ETF holdings have a stable weekly increase of over 15,000 coins, it means that the supply noose is tightening.
Like the shrewd brokers in the Miami real estate bubble of 1926, what you need is to plant the seeds early in the carnival: put 80% of your ammunition in the Bitcoin main battlefield, leave 15% for upgraded pioneers like ETH and SOL (especially focusing on ETH's on-chain activities after the Cancun upgrade), and finally, 5% to those new public chains still in their infancy (modular blockchains like TIA or parallel networks like SEI). When the supermarket cashier suggests you pay for bread with Dogecoin, remember to open your crypto wallet and start executing a three-tier retreat—sell 30% of your gains after breaking $200,000, retreat another 40% after three consecutive weekly declines, and place a stop-loss order for the remaining position below $170,000.
Remember that all blood and tears lessons will ultimately condense into eight words: 'In a bull market, making money relies on your butt; in a bear market, getting rich depends on your eyes'—those who can sit still will now smile at the clouds rolling by, and those who can endure will surely be able to reap the rewards in the future.
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