Bro, have you been feeling dizzy lately about whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September? Let's talk straight:
The official word is: don't expect it too soon!
Some big shots in the Federal Reserve have recently hinted that the general sentiment is: 'September? That's a bit too soon! Let's wait and see!'
The market isn't buying this: they feel it will be cut!
However, in the real money market (look at the interest rate futures), the proportion betting on a rate cut in September is still significantly higher than those betting it won't be cut!
Why is the market so stubborn? The root lies in 'jobs'!
Wasn't the employment data released a while ago? It was terrible! The number of job seekers is increasing, while job vacancies are rapidly decreasing. This forces the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts to boost the economy; otherwise, if employment collapses, who will take responsibility? However, the current data is somewhat fluctuating, as if covered in a layer of dust, causing some anxiety, which is why Bitcoin has also been fluctuating up and down non-stop recently.
Here comes the key question: Is there any method to know '100%' whether Bitcoin will surge or plummet next?
There really is! Moreover, this logic is the fundamental 'lifeline' of Bitcoin's rise and fall! It is —
The speed of global money printing (the technical term is 'global money supply M2')!
When the printing press is running at full throttle, Bitcoin will rise steadily!
If the printing press slows down, stops, or even withdraws money, Bitcoin will drop!
Moreover, Bitcoin's reaction usually lags behind the changes in the printing speed by a month or two, just like boiling water; once the fire is on, you still have to wait for a while for the water to boil.
[Breaking it down and explaining it thoroughly]
Think back to the pandemic in 2020 when the world was crazily printing money to save the economy, right? Well, as a result, in 2021, Bitcoin reached nearly $70,000!
Looking at 2022, the Federal Reserve began to hit the brakes and reduce money printing (tapering), and Bitcoin plummeted to $16,000!
History clearly tells you: when the water (money) rises, the boat (currency) goes up!
So what is the current situation of the global printing press?
In the first half of the year, the printing press was still turning happily, with money flowing abundantly. Recently, this momentum has somewhat slowed down, nearly stopping, and the amount of money even slightly shrank (fortunately, not by much).
What does this indicate? The signal is very clear!
✅ Don't dream of a sudden surge in the short term: Bitcoin's current volatile market (neither going up nor down, just grinding back and forth) will continue to be turbulent for a while longer, it's not ending that quickly.
✅ If you really want another big bull market? Wait! It must wait until the major central banks globally (especially the Federal Reserve) reopen the faucet! For instance, if it really starts cutting interest rates or initiates some stimulus plan to inject money into the market.
So, Bitcoin's fluctuations are really not mystical; they are not based on guessing the coin flip. It is tightly bound to the large pool of global money printing!
Retail investors stare at K-line charts every day trying to guess tomorrow's rise or fall, exhausting themselves without getting it right. What about the professionals? They have long been studying how much money each country's central bank has printed and how much the faucet has been turned on!
Here's the summary with key points:
September interest rate cut? The possibility still exists (due to poor employment), but the difficulty is not small (some officials oppose it).
Want Bitcoin to break through this grinding volatility? Keep a close eye on when the 'global faucet' will open wide again! Before that, it will honestly continue to fluctuate.
Be steady in your operations:
Don't chase highs! In this kind of market, chasing highs easily gets you stuck at the mountain top.
If it drops (especially a sharp drop close to important support levels like previous lows), consider picking up some cheap chips (spot) in batches. When the money comes in later, you'll have stock to profit.
Patience is the greatest skill right now!
Remember my words:
Newbies look at K-line charts, feeling nervous;
Veterans watch the printing press, steady as an old dog.
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In this market, surviving long is a real skill; every action you take now is paying off for your future self. Still acting like a headless fly in the market? Tossed around by daily price fluctuations and unable to sleep? Follow @crypto姜哥 , and I'll guide you through the K-line fog!
